NEW DELHI – The name Narendra Modi reminds people inevitably of the Godhra riots, for which he has acquired the infamous title – The Butcher of Gujarat. Does Modi’s name remain tainted forever? It may be an unpleasant reality for the liberal left, but most Indians view the events of 2002 as ancient history. But will Modi ever be able to get to the PM’s chair? Lakshmi Chaudhry and Sandip Roy for First Post listed the most compelling reasons why Modi may never become Prime Minister, or enjoy an extremely short tenure if he does.
Man vs. Party:
In a parliamentary democracy the individual matters far less than the party. There may be exceptions. A regional leader can start his or her own party like that of Mamata, but it does not work at the national level. Or, may be one family can dominate a national party, but that needs the advantage of dynasty.
Any BJP candidate for the top post has to be a party man, and enjoy the unqualified backing of its political life partner, the RSS. But Modi instead has made a career of pushing away the leadership of both. Former Gujarat chief minister Suresh Mehta told Tehelka, “The RSS unit in Gujarat in toto is against him, from the prant pracharak to the lowest worker. Modi has broken the Sangh; broken the party. He has raised his own personal stake so high, he has decimated the party structures.”
From Gadkari to Advani, once Modi’s protector, everyone has gone against Modi. It’s hard to prosper in a parliamentary system when your own people don’t like you very much. As one BJP leader made a clever remark to Outlook magazine, even if Modi succeeds in projecting himself as the next PM, “rest assured, the BJP will defeat him”.
The petty one:
A giant-sized ego is roughly a requirement for a successful political career. The real problem lies in the policy of revenge that creates unnecessary enmity – most recently epitomized in the inappropriate upheaval of Sanjay Joshi. He had to be expelled from the party meet in Mumbai, prohibited from taking the train to Delhi, and then instantly expelled from the party.
Whatever private satisfaction Modi gained from Joshi’s humiliation was undone by its political costs – creating a giant public rift at a moment when an image of party unity was immediately required. Modi had earlier, most famously made sure that the crowds were kept away from a Vajpayee rally in his state to underline his power and to achieve a political point. All politicians like to settle scores, but rarely at the cost of their or their party’s – political fate. And being in the national spotlight, such tantrums virtually assure Modi a never-ending stream of bad press, making the great man look small-minded and mean.
Divide and fall:
The old cliché about Modi being aggressive has gained fresh strength in the wake of the Sanjay Joshi brawl. He has now earned the uncertain honor of being the one man who forced an unmatched public rift in even the famously disciplined RSS leadership.
Modi evokes extreme emotions, and all other issues withdraw into the background once he comes into the picture. The debate turns into a battle over the merits of the man himself, which promises ill for the BJP. As a Modi supporter notes, “The irony is that the party needs him, but can it really risk positioning him as the prime ministerial candidate for 2014? Doing this would immediately turn the election into a highly-polarized referendum on Modi rather than the UPA’s bad governance,” as reported First Post.
Modi really inspires a loyal and frightening following, but the price is far too high to win a general election.
The charm deficit:
While a big streak of fascism is hardly a disadvantage in a nation that still worships Indira Gandhi. The investment rates in Gujarat may be vital to the urban middle class, but the average Indian is looking for leader who stirs trust and affection.
Modi suffers from a charm deficit disorder that’s fatal for a politician in national retail politics. Modi, the ‘loh purush’ seems to have all the warmth of stainless steel. His aloofness makes for bad television, and even his favorable media stories emphasize a technocratic capability and unfriendly integrity.
The playgrounds domineer:
Modi doesn’t play nicely with others. It works fine when it’s limited to Gujarat — a world where his way is the highway. But New Delhi is completely a different ballgame. The man who inherited a state with a two-thirds BJP majority is unprepared to manage an unstable coalition with egos almost as big as his own. He can oppress the BJP national enclave to come to an agreement on Sanjay Joshi, but as Prime Minister he will soon find out that a Jayalalithaa can out-sulk him any day.
A former CM of Gujarat told Caravan magazine “Modi only thinks of winning – and winning all the time.” In a way, Manmohan Singh has survived as long as he has, due to his quick to bend way – though increasingly at the cost of being feeble. Modi may be every bit as incapable in New Delhi for the exactly the opposite reason.
India is not Gujarat:
Modi is idolized by a section of the middle class because he can get things done and has been able to deliver their dream state – one with minimal red tape, where a file goes through five people not thirty, and the markers of progress are out there, displayed for everyone to see. Vinod Jose points out in his profile in Caravan “he (Modi) appears to prefer power to money, which is a particularly appealing proposition for voters who regard most politicians as corrupt, ineffective and weak.”
A political commentator, sympathetic to Modi, tells Shoma Chaudhury in Tehelka “But the problem for him is, Gujarat is not India,” as reported by First Post. Gujarat is more industrialized, more urbanized, and more homogeneous than most other Indian states – and therefore more accessible to Modi’s corporate Hindutva message.
Modi has also been able to turn all criticism about Godhra into an attack on Gujarati asmita (pride). Aakar Patel in Outlook said “Hand Modi a two-thirds Lok Sabha majority, control of all the ministries he wants, and he might be able to govern India firmly. That may not be the same thing as governing India well.”
But, Modi will only be able to govern if he gets his party’s nomination and if he then delivers a two-thirds Lok Sabha majority and if he then gets control of all the ministries he wants. Anything less and he is likely to never govern at all or not for very long.
