In the just released report of the US National Intelligence Council, America has conceded the Rise of the East. The report titled “Global Trends 2030: Alternative World Reports” concedes that the American and the European dominance is ending and the importance of the developing countries (Emerging Economies) is increasing and the power is shifting from Europe and North America to Asia. China’s economy will surpass America’s and become the largest economy of the world by 2030. The European, Japanese and the Russian economies will continue to shrink slowly.
In 2030, the Chinese economy will be 2.4 times bigger than the Japanese economy. Based upon the GDP, Military expenditure and Investment in technology, the Asian power will be bigger than the combined power of North America and Europe. As the emerging economies are growing, the flow of capital, new ideas and companies will be towards the developing countries. In the next 15-20 years, the activities in the technological field and the focus of the multinational companies will be towards the fast growing economies of the countries such as China, India and Brazil. The companies belonging to these countries will become internationally competitive. Even though, China will be in the first place, yet the rate of growth of the Indian economy will slowly catch up with and surpass the Chinese economy.
For the last many years, I have been predicting that in the second decade of the 21st century, China’s economy will surpass the American economy and overall, Asia’s power will surpass the power of Europe and America. Several years ago, I made these assertions in my book “Asia’s Century” and repeated them in my recently published book “Rise of the East.” Another interesting thing is that I coined the terms multipolar world and unipolar world. The term multipolar world has been very widely accepted before. However, the term unipolar world was used by Mathews Burrows, the Councilor, while talking about the National Intelligence Council’s report.
The changing equations between the East and the West have been accepted by America, the most powerful country in the world. However, the Punjabi Community is not ready to accept the new realities of the world. The flood of a massive immigration from Punjab to the Western countries continues. The whole psyche of the Punjabis revolves around immigration. The Punjabi culture has become a culture of the Nomadic and Uprooted people, resulting in the big social instability, particularly of the rural Punjab. Recently, we saw the people waiting for an American visa, before the American Embassy in New Delhi. It appeared as if more than 90 % of the people were Punjabis and most of them were from the rural Punjab. Punjab’s population is about 2 % of India’s population.
Since the start of the current economic crisis, a new phenomenon called the reverse immigration has started in America. Some people estimate that close to 200,000 people of the Indian origin have returned to India during this period. However, Punjab remains untouched by the new phenomenon. Many businesses in Punjab are flourshing because of the flood of immigration. These include the English Schools, Marriage Palaces, Travel Agents and many other institutions specifically geared up to prepare for the immigration. All these have a vested interest in promoting the Immigration Mania in Punjab. Hopefully, the US National Intelligence Council’s report will convince the Punjabis that the East is rising and the West is declining. Is it really wise to migrate from the rising area to a declining area?
Dr. Sawraj Singh, MD F.I.C.S. is the Chairman of the Washington State Network for Human Rights and Chairman of the Central Washington Coalition for Social Justice. He can be reached at [email protected].
