India Rises To The Third Spot In Biggest Economies In The World

Is America Headed For Third Place After China and India?

Dr. Sawraj Singh

By Dr. Sawraj Singh

In the last decade, India has risen from tenth place to third as far as the size of the economy is concerned. India pushed Japan from third place to fourth place.

Many years ago, I had predicted that before the middle of the century, the Chinese and Indian economies will become larger than the American economy and India will be in the second place. At that time, very few people agreed with me. However, now many people are convinced that the two major trends of today’s world, which I identified as being the rise of the East and the decline of the West, are correct.

Some may question how we can explain the slide of Japan in an era which is marked by the rise of the East and in a century which is called Asia’s century. The answer lies in the fact that Japan is thoroughly integrated with the western capitalist system. Therefore, the collapse of the western capitalist system will also sink Japan. Japan did not follow eastern wisdom and did not jump off the sinking ship.

India also adopted the western capitalist model of development. However, India is too large and too diverse to become fully integrated with the western capitalist order. India did not completely burn its bridge with the East. India has revived its traditional friendship with Russia and has tried to improve its relations with China. The result, India is slowly moving towards a grand eastern alliance of Russia and China, and is now enjoying a very close relationship. Russia is also India’s time-tested friend. Therefore, Russia can act as the central link in the trilateral alliance.

Western arrogance is finally leading to the downfall of the West. A growing number of people now seem to agree that the western capitalist system will collapse before the middle of the century (2050). America will slide from first place to third or fourth place. America’s status in 2050 is likely to be what Britain’s was in 2000: a fourth-rate power.

America will neither remain the only superpower of the world nor will it be the leading country in terms of its economic or military power. The best-case scenario for America in 2050 will be to retain the third or the fourth spot. The worst-case scenario is beyond imagination. Unlike Britain, America, with its extremely arrogant behavior has antagonized many forces all over the world: Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Islamic fundamentalists, Arab nationalists, Cuba, and leftists and patriots in Latin American countries, to name just a few.

The other factor which can make a difference in the British versus American outcomes is that unlike Britain, America faces a very serious challenge as far as its internal racial situation is concerned. Unfortunately, the decline in American power is going to deepen racial divisions instead of uniting the people. Therefore, a race war in this century cannot be completely ruled out.

One of the saddest things about today’s Europe is that instead of helping America with its problems, Europe wants to join America in promoting western arrogance. Instead of saving America, Europe seems to be happy in jumping into the sinking ship. Europe’s fate looks similar to that of Japan. The American, European and Japanese economies have been integrated into the western capitalist system to the extent that it is impossible for them to get out of it. Still another explanation can be (to paraphrase Lord Krishna) that when a bad time approaches, your intelligence usually betrays you.

The Europeans can read the writing on the wall that the days of western domination are over and the West is sinking. The Europeans have lost their traditional wisdom and restraint just as the Japanese have. An example of the Europeans’ distorted perception of reality is their starting a trade war with India. The Europeans have stopped importing Indian mangoes precisely at that time when it came out that India has become the third largest economy of the world. The Europeans have made India very angry just like the Americans did when they humiliated Devyani Khobragade, the Indian diplomat. India extracted a very heavy price from America for displaying a humiliating, dehumanizing and degrading behavior towards its diplomat. India can make Europe pay a very heavy price for their arrogant and unreasonable stand on the issue of importing Alphonso mangoes.

America and Europe will soon find out that they need India more than India needs them. India has many options if it loses the western markets. India has vast areas like Russia, China, and other Asian countries to explore. However, America and Europe have very few options. Their relations with Russia, China, and many Asian, African, and Latin American countries are becoming increasingly strained. The western countries can still get some resolutions passed in the U.N., I.M.F., or the World Bank because they basically control these institutions. However, the relevance and important of these institutions is falling considerably and they are playing ever-decreasing roles in world affairs.

America and the West should look at Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Syria, Sudan, Egypt, and Ukraine and see what little they have accomplished. In each and every situation, the outcome has been worse than it was before their intervention. When is the West going to learn that instead of making things better, they are making things worse? If the West really wants to know the truth, then they have to give up their arrogance. Their arrogance does not let them see their decline and the fact that they are hastening their own decline by their attitude and actions.

The rise of the East and the decline of the West are the two major trends of today’s world. India is slowly climbing up toward the top while America is losing its position at the top, both occurrences fit into these trends.

Dr. Sawraj Singh, MD F.I.C.S. is the Chairman of the Washington State Network for Human Rights and Chairman of the Central Washington Coalition for Social Justice. He can be reached at sawrajsingh@hotmail.com.

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