By Dr. Sawraj Singh
In 2003, President Bush claimed victory in Iraq. More than a decade later, I wonder, how is he feeling now? Many Indians, particularly Punjabis, seem to have unrealistic faith in American power and capabilities. The day America invaded Iraq, a Punjabi doctor, while watching NBC TV said that America will win the war in a week. I told him that was very unlikely, that this war could drag on for at least a decade, and that it is almost certain that it will be lost in the end.
In 2004, the CIA seemed to conclude that for all practical purposes, the war had been lost. In one year, Bush’s over-optimistic impression of the war changed to the CIA’s pessimistic assessment. In 2011, when most of the American troops were withdrawn after losing 4,000 American soldiers, the tragedy was rather obvious. The number of wounded was many times more. However, the biggest loss was loss in morale and associated mental health problems. By some estimates, more than 10% of American soldiers stationed in Iraq suffer from depression, post-traumatic stress disorder, and other serious mental illnesses.
What went wrong in Iraq? Following in the footsteps of its ancestors (the British imperialists), the Americans tried to divide the Iraqi population. The Shias and the Kurds were incited against the Sunnis. This worked to bring down Saddam who was a Sunni. However, it sowed the seed of Iraq’s destruction and America’s failure. The Sunnis who had dominated Iraq were complete marginalized. America encouraged the Shias and the Kurds to get even with the Sunnis and make them pay for their past atrocities. There was never a talk of reconciliation or unity among the different Iraqi factions. American policy was to deepen their divisions. The three communities are more or less geographically demarcated. The Kurds are dominant in the north, the Shias are in a big majority in the south, and the Sunnis are stronger in the central part of Iraq.
By pitting one faction against the other and by completely preventing any meaningful efforts of unity, the tragic end in Iraq was a foregone conclusion, just like a Greek tragedy. Iraq was pushed toward more than a civil war: complete chaos and anarchy. In this scenario, the faction with the greatest experience in terrorism has better odds to prevail. Therefore Al Qaeda, which is based among the Sunnis, has better chances to prevail.
Another factor which helped the Islamic radicals to prevail in Iraq were the completely opportunist policies, without any principled stand, of America and the other western imperialist countries. They have used Islamic fundamentalists and terrorist organizations against their rivals wherever they could. They used these forces in Afghanistan to bring down the Soviet Union. They used these forces in Libya to bring down Gaddafi and they are currently using them in Syria against Assad. When you deal with radical and terrorist forces and ally with them against your rivals, that gives them a degree of legitimacy as well as improves their standing among their followers.
However, in the end these forces will turn against their opportunist allies. There is a saying in the Punjabi language “If a cat teaches a tiger to hunt, then the tiger will hunt the cat.” Afghanistan and Libya are good examples of this. After the Americans and the western powers used the Islamic fundamentalists to get rid of their rivals, they turned their guns against their opportunist allies.
America’s failure in Iraq is not an isolated phenomenon. It is a manifestation of the global trend of the West’s decline. Unlike the two World Wars, the West is bound to lose the Third World War, if it happens. There are chances that the West may crumble before a Third World War. Somalia, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Georgia, Ukraine and Iraq, all of these defeats may actually prevent a full-fledged war. These defeats may leave the West too demoralized and disheartened to fight World War three.
The time has come for India to reconsider its policies of trying to do a juggling act between the East and the West. India can do the biggest balancing act by joining the East. If the West knows that India is no longer available to provide it with manpower to fight the Third World War, then it is unlikely to start one. The West can send drones and other gadgets, but cannot send soldiers to fight the wars. People, not gadgets, win wars.
Dr. Sawraj Singh, MD F.I.C.S. is the Chairman of the Washington State Network for Human Rights and Chairman of the Central Washington Coalition for Social Justice. He can be reached at [email protected].
