By Dr. Sawraj Singh
The situation in Iraq shows that America is on the retreat and is unable to maintain stability and order in that country. Its retreat is leaving a vacuum which is being filled by forces which are not committed to maintaining peace, harmony, or law and order there. Moreover the long-term goal of these forces and their long-term impact remains unclear and uncertain. This is happening in an area which is playing a major role in today’s global economy. It is the area which exports the maximum oil to the world. Oil is the lifeline of the modern economy. With instability, chaos, anarchy, and uncertainty in the area, many countries are feeling very anxious. India is one of them. A significant amount of India’s oil is imported from this area. Many Indians are also working in this area. Their future is also a big concern for India.
Like India, Russia and China are very concerned with the developments in Iraq. Syria is already in a state of civil war, thanks to western intervention. The western countries, in their obsession to get rid of Assad, have pushed Syria into a very deep and dangerous state of conflict. However, it is still better than Libya, which is in a state of complete lawlessness, lack of law and order, and anarchy after the West murdered Gaddafi.
One of the major concerns for India, China, and Russia is that the story of Iraq is going to be repeated in Afghanistan. Like the ISIS in Iraq, the Taliban are going to take over Afghanistan once the West completely pulls out of there. Afghanistan is located where South Asia meets West Asia and Central Asia. Therefore, a change in Afghanistan is likely to affect all of these regions. Historically, Afghanistan has been a part of South Asia. Therefore, India can be affected much more than the other countries. However, China and Russia also have high stakes in the outcome in Afghanistan. Both countries are facing the challenge of Islamic fundamentalism. Maintaining peace and stability in West Asia and Afghanistan should be the major concern and priority for India, China, and Russia.
None of the countries is in a position to completely fill the vacuum left by American withdrawal. However, if the three countries join their forces for maintaining peace and stability in the region, then they can succeed. Russia and China have better understood the situation created by American retreat in the world. They have joined their forces to fill the vacuum created by American withdrawal. However, India is not convinced that America is on the retreat. India is confused by the American assertion and explanation that it is leaving West Asia and is concentrating in East Asia because it is more concerned about China’s rise and is trying to control China. India sees an opportunity in the false American assertions and pretenses. India feels that it can get a better deal from America, Russia, and China by its juggling act rather than by joining Russia and China to fill the vacuum created by American withdrawal and stop the chaos, anarchy, and instability resulting from American retreat.
The situations in Syria, Iraq and Ukraine have shown that when push comes to shove, America is likely to withdraw rather than get actively involved. The public opinion in America is heavily tilted toward not getting involved in a major, head-on conflict with either Russia or China; therefore in the event of confrontation with either of these countries, America is likely to opt for indirect measures such as economic sanctions rather than a direct military conflict.
India can no longer afford to sit on the fence and try to juggle between East and West. To protect its vital interests as well as to prevent the region from falling into complete anarchy, India has to join forces with the East (i.e. Russia and China) to restore the balance of power in the world and make the transition from the American era to the post-American era smooth and bearable.
India should remember that out of the three countries (Russia, China, and India), India is the most likely to be adversely affected by the chaos, anarchy, and instability in the countries like Iraq and Afghanistan. Russia and China are being differently affected by American policies. Russia is very concerned by the incursion of NATO and the European Union into its area of influence such as Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. China is very concerned by America’s inciting of its neighbors such as Japan, Vietnam, and Philippines to challenge China’s territorial assertion in the East and South China Seas. All three countries are facing challenges due to the decline of American influence in the world, although in different manners. To safeguard and protect their own interests as well as the world from falling into instability, chaos, and anarchy, and to maintain peace, harmony, and order in the world, Russia, China, and India should join their forces.
Dr. Sawraj Singh, MD F.I.C.S. is the Chairman of the Washington State Network for Human Rights and Chairman of the Central Washington Coalition for Social Justice. He can be reached at [email protected].
