By Dr. Sawraj Singh
Japan is the most developed capitalist society in Asia and probably in the whole world. I feel that if we compare infrastructure per square kilometer, then Japan is the most developed capitalist country in the world. I have been to Japan many times and have also traveled extensively in North America and Europe. I have flown over Japan, traveled by road, and in the bullet trains. It appears that almost all of Japan is a part of planned development. I never experienced that feeling in any other country. However, Japan is paying a tremendous price for this capitalist development.
Japan is losing its population. For the last four consecutive years, the birth rate is decreasing (fewer babies are being born than during the preceding year) and is now less than the mortality rate: In 2014, 1,001,000 births occurred while an estimated 1.3 million deaths occurred. Demographers cite reasons for the decline in population such as childbirth and child-rearing becoming increasingly expensive, more women joining the workforce, the increasing average age of couples when they marry, and the increasing number of unmarried people. Japan’s population is also aging. About 25% of the population is older than 65. This figure is expected to climb to more than 40% by the year 2060. This is very adversely affecting the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Japan. A shrinking productive population has to support an ever-increasing non-productive population. By the year 2050, Japan’s population may be 30 million less than it now is. Japan will have a decreasing proportion of women of child-bearing age, therefore the fertility rate will continue to decline.
I feel that it is not Japan alone, but all of the capitalist countries which are experiencing decline in fertility rate. The western countries have used migration to cover the decline in their population. For example, Canada brings about 1% of its population as immigrants every year to maintain its workforce. One can go to any western European country and see that young immigrants (generally from third world countries) doing most of the menial jobs. We were surprised to see this workforce doing menial jobs at the Amsterdam airport. Most of the workers appeared to be immigrants. Japan and other Asian countries still want homogeneity in population. Therefore, immigration is much less visible in the Asian countries as compared to western countries. Japan does not seem to be trying to make up for the loss of population by bringing in more immigrants.
There are some more factors which seem to be responsible for the decline in fertility rate and the population in the capitalist countries. Disintegration of family seems to be playing a major role. In its quest for making human beings mere consumers, capitalism has taken a big toll on the family. There is more incentive within a family structure rather than isolated individuals to have more children. Capitalism has also made people extremely self-centered and selfish. They can only think of themselves and are unable to think in terms of the collective good. They do not think that they owe anything to the family or to society. In other words, they do not feel that they ought to have children because it is a family or social responsibility. They will have children only if they want to have children. Generally, that means to have just one child for the experience of having a child.
Another factor for declining fertility is the promotion of unnatural relations between men and women. Eastern wisdom saw male and female as complementary entities that make one complete unit. This is more compatible with nature. However, capitalism has promoted an adversarial relationship between the two genders. Women liberation generally means standing up to men and seeing men as oppressors. With this pseudo-liberation of women, the sperm count continues to decline in most of the capitalist countries. As the relationship becomes more unnatural, the incidence of impotence also increases. Both of these factors lead to a significant decline in fertility. The developing countries, which are adopting the capitalist model of development, are also experiencing these problems. In Punjab, impotence and low fertility are reaching alarming proportions.
So far, the western capitalist countries have been able to cope with the problem of the decline in fertility and loss of population by bringing in more immigrants. However, as the fertility rate and population growth decreases in the developing countries, it will become increasingly difficult for western capitalist countries to bring in the needed immigrants. India has been the major exporter of people to other countries. Punjabis have led in migrating to western countries. By 2030, India’s population is going to level off. With very high rates of impotence, decreasing sperm count, and problems of ovulation and conception, Punjab can experience a big loss of population and scarcity of the workforce. It can also take off pressure for migration. Hypothetically, Punjab can experience a severe shortage of labor in the not too distant future since the migrant laborers are also beginning to face similar problems with fertility.
I have already predicted that by the middle of the century (2050), capitalism, at least in its present form, will collapse. The decrease in fertility rate and the loss of population will also play a significant role in the collapse of capitalism. Capitalism has a concept of ever-expanding markets. There is no concept of moderation or restraint. The decline in population will make it impossible to expand markets any further and will force concepts of moderation and restraint, which are alien to capitalism. As moderation and restraint are Eastern concepts, the Rise of the non-capitalist East is inevitable.
Dr. Sawraj Singh, MD F.I.C.S. is the Chairman of the Washington State Network for Human Rights and Chairman of the Central Washington Coalition for Social Justice. He can be reached at [email protected].
