By Dr. Sawraj Singh
It is the first time that an American President will be the Chief Guest at the Republic Day Parade in India. I am afraid this will only reinforce the belief of other countries that India has tilted toward America. India has to be extremely careful about projecting such an image in the world. So far, India has been able to save itself from being drawn into a major conflict primarily because it was perceived as a neutral (non-aligned) country. Such an impression is changing rapidly and India is increasingly seen as a part of the alliance of countries such as America, Israel, and Japan. This alliance is considered to be anti-Russia, anti-China, anti-Islam, and anti-third world. It is extremely dangerous for India to be considered part of this alliance.
Even a bird’s eye view on the world situation can tell us certain major trends:
• American influence is decreasing
• American hegemony is ending
• America has already lost the status as the only superpower in the world
• America and Europe face growing differences, particularly on the issue of containing and encircling Russia
• Russia has re-emerged as a world power
• China has become the dominant economic power and the manufacturing hub of the world
• Russia and China have formed a very close alliance
• Russia’s relations with Iran are growing rapidly
• Russia’s relations with Pakistan are improving fast
• India’s neighbors such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, Myanmar, and Maldives are tilting toward China
India should look at some of the recent events and the above formulations will be proved.
America just conceded defeat in Afghanistan. America had already conceded defeat in Iraq. America has been unable to dislodge Assad in Syria. America has been unable to sustain its victories in any country. America was able to get rid of Saddam. However, the present government in Iraq is in a shambles and is completely unable to control Iraq. Iraq is an almost entirely destroyed country with different factions fighting over the carcass. Similarly, America was able to overthrow Gaddafi. Libya is in a complete state of anarchy with not even a semblance of law and order. The American victory turned sour when the American Ambassador was burnt alive there. The situation in Somalia is no better than Libya. The American victory has turned out to be a disaster; from the Black Hawk Down incident to the present, Somalia is in a state where even the word anarchy cannot describe the state in which Somalia finds itself in today. With victories like Iraq, Libya, and Somalia who needs defeats?
As America and the western countries are losing influence in the world, the internal racial conflict and strife is becoming a major problem. Just look at the protests in America after the white policemen who shot and killed black men were let go by the juries. Look at what is happening in France and Germany. America and the western countries are facing growing economic competition from the East, increased racial problems at home, and a growing trans-Atlantic gap.
Americans and western Europeans have lost the will to fight any other major war. If we look at any survey in America, Canada, or Europe, more than 70% people are opposed to getting involved in any war. The growing trans-Atlantic gap is visible when you see that Europeans are not supportive of America’s policies to contain and encircle Russia. Obama is coming to India, but he failed to show up in Paris when more than 40 world leaders and more than three million people joined the march for solidarity. I feel the main reason for this was that France does not agree with his policy to contain and encircle Russia.
Two World Wars were fought in Europe. The Europeans do not want World War Three to be fought in Europe; that is why they do not agree with the American policy on Russia. America feels that if the arena for the Third World War can be shifted to Asia, particularly the Indian subcontinent, then it can keep the trans-Atlantic alliance intact. Henry Kissinger’s China policy, popularly called Ping-Pong diplomacy, helped America to align with China and bring down the Soviet Union. America was also able to extend the American era for almost half a century more. America feels that if it can repeat its performance in the Indian subcontinent and align India against China, then it can extend its demise as the only superpower of the world for another half of a century. Pakistan is China’s close ally. America seems to feel that if it cannot make India fight directly with China, then there is an indirect way. If there is war between Pakistan and India, then China can be drawn into this fight. Everyone knows that it is not very difficult to make India and Pakistan fight each other.
There is one very big risk for India in fighting against Pakistan. Pakistan can use nuclear weapons. Even though that can be suicidal for Pakistan, yet India, particularly the North, can suffer very, very serious damage. America may try to assure India that it will not let Pakistan use its nuclear option. There are two questions. First, can America be trusted to do everything it can to prevent Pakistan? The American record in the past is not very encouraging. America has let down many of its allies when they got into trouble. There is a very long list of such allies, but the Shah of Iran was not too far from India. India should remember that the Shah of Iran, who was the closest American ally in the region, was dumped by America when he really got in trouble. The second question is that even if America wants to help India, will Russia and China let it do so? There is a clear understanding between Russia and China that they will not let America exert its influence in the region.
There is still another scenario which cannot be ruled out. In case of a war in South Asia, Russia can start a war in Europe and retake most of the Eastern European territory which it lost to the West. The Western Europe can strike a deal with Russia to spare them. In either scenario, the Trans-Atlantic rift will widen. Europe will eventually break way from America. I feel this is the writing on the wall which America has read and that is the reason Obama or another American leader did not show up in Paris. Another indication of America’s decreasing influence in Europe is that its closest ally in Europe, England, has been completely marginalized in Europe to a point that it may walk out of the European Union. Even with Europe’s help, America cannot win a war against the combined force of Russia and China. If Europe becomes neutral in this war, then American defeat becomes a certainty from a probability.
The best thing India can do is to make it clear to the world that while it wants good relations with America, it does not want to be allied with it. India should also reassert its support for the Palestinians and assure the Muslim world that there is no change in India’s stand on the Palestinian question. If the Muslim world feels that India’s support for Palestine is getting softer, then its relations with India will be strained. India should make it clear to America and the rest of the world that Russia is India’s time-tested friend and India cannot give that status to any other country. Instead of falling into the American trap, India should try to convince America that it should accept the reality that it has already lost the sole superpower of the world status, and so long as Russia and China are together, America has no realistic chance to win against them. The best thing it can do is to accept the reality of a multipolar world and do not risk its own existence as well as of the rest of the world. Instead of becoming a victim of western arrogance, India should teach some Eastern wisdom to America of tolerance, peaceful coexistence, and mutual respect. Modi should tell Obama that America and India shall become partners in maintaining world peace rather than in starting World War Three.
Dr. Sawraj Singh, MD F.I.C.S. is the Chairman of the Washington State Network for Human Rights and Chairman of the Central Washington Coalition for Social Justice. He can be reached at [email protected].
