By Dr. Sawraj Singh
America seems to be raising the stakes in the Ukraine war by announcing that it may provide lethal weapons to Ukraine in its war with the Russian-backed rebels. It is common knowledge that the Ukrainian army is taking a miserable beating from the rebels in Eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian army wants to draw America and the NATO into a direct conflict with Russia. This can be extremely dangerous for Europe and the world. Russia has drawn a line in the sand in Ukraine. Under no circumstances will Russia allow America and the NATO to win this war. If Russia loses in Ukraine, then it will mean an end to the Russian policy of becoming a world power again, and the humiliation that the Russian people suffered when the Soviet Union collapsed will be repeated all over again. Russia cannot let that happen. Ukraine is its last chance to regain the lost prestige and preserve credibility as a power that counts. Russia cannot afford to lose in Ukraine.
The western countries have imposed severe economic sanctions. They have manipulated oil prices to bring Russia to its knees. However, Russia has stood firm because it is winning in Ukraine. Putin has become more popular instead of losing popularity. He is seen by the Russians as a leader who has restored Russia’s prestige and pride. Putin handed America and the West a significant defeat in the Middle East. He did not let them topple Assad. This is seen as a Russian victory by even the western media. The Middle East is a very important region in the world because of oil and its strategic location. A defeat in Ukraine will be considered a defeat in the heartland of capitalism, Europe. Europe is not only the birthplace of capitalism, but is also the epicenter of capitalism. A defeat in Europe will be considered a defeat in the mainland of capitalism. The stakes for both sides are very high, neither can let it go.
Who is more likely to prevail? Generally, the side which can take a bigger risk has better odds to win. America and the other western countries are unable to take a big risk. They can only fight those wars where victory is guaranteed. They will all join and also include many other small countries to attack one small country like Iraq or Libya. The outcome in such wars is known even before the war starts. However, when the wars become prolonged and drawn out, then they have a consistent history of abandoning their allies to face the consequences alone. In other words, America and other western countries are fair-weathered friends; you cannot count on their friendship if things start getting tough for you. They can only inflict pain and suffering, but have no nerve to endure those. Russia, on the other hand, has a very different history. The Russian people defeated two big invaders, Napoleon and Hitler, by enduring a lot of pain and suffering. In the end, they prevailed. The West today is making the Russians pay a very big price with its economic sanctions and the policy to manipulate oil prices. However, the Russians are more likely to prevail in the end.
Some people think that like the two World Wars, the West is going to emerge victorious again. However, there is a very big difference between the situation then and now. The West had a virtual monopoly over the world’s resources then. At that time, a large portion of the area of the world was under western domination. Therefore, the natural resources of Asia, Africa, and Latin America were, for all practical purposes, at the West’s disposal. Now, the situation is very different. Robert Mugabe has been elected Chairman of the African Union. He has pledged to end the influence of colonialists and imperialists in Africa. Just look at the map of Asia. If we combine the area of Russia, China, and the Central Asian countries (who are members of the Shanghai Cooperation), then it becomes obvious that the major portion of Asia is no longer under western control. The same can be said of Latin America.
If the Ukraine war escalates to World War Three, as is wished for by the Ukraine government, then the West will not have the same advantage which it had during the first Two World Wars. Moreover, Russia has already declared that it can use its nuclear option. The West is not really prepared to face an all-out nuclear war. It could only use the atom bombs on Japan when it was sure that the other side did not have them. Russia has bigger stocks of nuclear weapons than any other country. Moreover, Russia is also likely to use them regardless of the consequences. The western countries will calculate many times the gains and losses before they actually use their nuclear weapons. When they finally decide to use them, then probably it will be too late; Russia will have already used them. Just like the conventional war, the nuclear war is more likely won by the side which is willing to take a bigger risk.
The best thing America and the West can do in Ukraine is to not escalate the war any further and give peace a real chance. So far, America and the West have made sure that there is no diplomatic or peaceful solution to the war. Russia has genuinely given peace a chance. However, now Russia seems to have concluded that America and the West are not interested in a peaceful solution and the only option is war. It is up to the western countries to decide whether they want a limited war in Ukraine or they want to escalate it and make it a World War Three or a nuclear war. We can hope that good sense will prevail, and that before the West risks its own existence as well as of the rest of the world, it will give peace a chance. The time has come for the West to give up its arrogance and embrace humility. After all, humility has been a universal human value since ancient times.
Dr. Sawraj Singh, MD F.I.C.S. is the Chairman of the Washington State Network for Human Rights and Chairman of the Central Washington Coalition for Social Justice. He can be reached at [email protected].
