BANGALORE – Remittances growth to slow sharply in 2015, as Europe and Russia stay weak; pick up expected next year. Total remittances in 2014 reached $583 billion.
This is more than double the official development assistance (ODA) in the world. India received $70 billion, China $64 billion, the Philippines $28 billion. However, the growth in global remittances, including those to developing countries, will slow sharply in 2015 due to weak economic growth in Europe, deterioration of the Russian economy and the depreciation of the euro and ruble, says the latest issue of the World Bank’s Migration and Development Brief.
Officially recorded remittances to the developing world are expected to reach $440 billion in 2015, an increase of 0.9 percent over the previous year. Global remittances, including those to high income countries, are projected to grow by 0.4 percent to $586 billion.
The 2015 remittance growth rates are the slowest since the global financial crisis in 2008/09. Nonetheless, the number of international migrants is expected to exceed 250 million in 2015, and their savings and remittances are expected to continue to grow.
The slowdown in the growth of remittances this year will affect most developing regions, in particular Europe and Central Asia where flows are expected to decline by 12.7 percent in 2015. The positive impact of an economic recovery in the U.S. will be partially offset by continued weakness in the Euro Area, the impact of lower oil prices on the Russian economy, the strengthening of the US dollar, and tighter immigration controls in many remittance source countries.
In line with the expected global economic recovery next year, the global flows of remittances are expected to accelerate by 4.1 percent in 2016, to reach an estimated $610 billion, rising to $636 billion in 2017. Remittance flows to developing countries are expected to recover in 2016 to reach $459 billion, rising to $479 billion in 2017.
