OTTAWA – NDP leader Thomas Mulcair and his party continue to lead in national voting intentions and have the inside track on winning the most seats, thanks to wide leads in British Columbia and Quebec and a tight three-way battle in Ontario.
The New Democrats hold the lead in polls with 32.1 per cent support, compared to 29 per cent for the Conservatives and 27.1 per cent for the Liberals. The NDP has been holding steady in the polls, and has led or been tied for the lead in each of the last 11 national surveys. The Liberals, who appeared to be poised for a rebound of their own a few weeks ago, have plateaued, reported CBC news.
Instead, it has been the Conservatives who have seen their support levels improve. After placing third or tied for second in five of seven polls, the Tories have placed second or tied for first in the last two.
If an election were held, the New Democrats would likely win between 113 and 135 seats, with the Conservatives winning between 102 and 139 seats. The Liberals would likely take between 74 and 106 seats.
The Bloc Québécois, at 5.5 per cent, would likely capture between one and four seats, while the Greens, at 4.9 per cent, would take one.
Though the seat projection overlaps significantly between the New Democrats and Conservatives, the NDP is narrowly favoured in the average projection at 127 seats to 119 for the Conservatives. This edge is largely due to the New Democrats’ strong showing in British Columbia, Quebec and Ontario.
The NDP leads in the polls in B.C. with 38.6 per cent support, compared to 26.4 per cent for the second-place Conservatives. That is enough to give the NDP as many as 23 seats in the province, almost double the number the party won in 2011.
