The East is forging ahead in the field of higher education and is leaving the West far behind. Countries like China and India are going to produce University graduates at a much higher rate than the U.S. and Europe, particularly in the STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) subjects. These are the subjects which really show how fast a society is developing.
America previously led in the proportion of people going to university. Among the 55-64 years age group, about a third of all graduates from the major economies of the world are American citizens. In terms of producing graduates, China has overtaken Europe and the U.S. combined. Predictions are that in the 25-34 years age group, graduates in China are rising by a further 300% as compared to an increase of about 30% in Europe and the U.S. In the U.S., it is becoming very difficult for students to pay tuition and related fees. In Europe, most countries are not expanding their universities.
While the West is slowing down in the field of education, Asian countries such as China and India are racing ahead. According to statistics, a new university opens in China every week! It is not just the number of graduates; the students in China and India are more likely to study STEM subjects. These subjects are considered to be the most important ones for technological progress. In 2013, 40% of Chinese graduates completed their studies in STEM subjects. This was more than double the percentage of American students studying these subjects. The predictions are that by 2030, China and India could produce more than 60% of STEM graduates in major economies. Compared to this, the European share will be about 8% and America will be producing about 4%.
Countries such as China and India can produce a highly skilled workforce at moderate cost. Whereas in Europe and America, such cost will be much higher. In a globalized market, this will give a big advantage to these countries. The western countries will have to meet a very tough challenge in the knowledge sector. Some are questioning that quantity may not necessarily change into quality. In other words, the quality of education in China or India may not match that of the western countries. However, China has shown the world that it is possible to raise quantity and quality simultaneously. Just look at this fact: in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) tests, the economically poorest 10% of 15-year-old students in Shanghai scored better than the most privileged 10% of 15-year-old students in the U.S.A. It is becoming increasingly clear that in the field of knowledge, the future belongs to the East, particularly to China. Asia was and will again become the center of knowledge in the world.
For the last 50 years or so, the West, particularly the U.S., has been able to draw talent from all over the world. However, that also started changing. After the Second World War, many scientists and other highly-educated people moved from Europe to the U.S. In the seventies, migration from Western European countries almost ended and was replaced by the migration of highly-skilled and educated workers from Asia, particularly from India. There are two new factors which can change this situation. The western countries, particularly the U.S., want to pit India against China. However, China is so much ahead that it may be difficult for India to catch up and it seems that contrary to western predictions, the gap may actually widen. The second factor may be that India may be able to develop an internal market with a need and capacity to absorb a significant portion of its highly skilled workforce, therefore the available pool for the West may be further reduced.
Another difference between India and China is that the Indian education system is being mostly privatized, more so the higher and the quality education. The government schools are now mostly used by the poor and the ordinary people. The quality education is now mostly limited to private schools. Only the rich and the upper middle class can afford these schools. The net result is that even though India’s population is roughly equal to China’s, yet the quality education is only available for a very small population. Therefore, India is unlikely to catch up with China.
Both of these scenarios can make it much harder for the West to compete with the East. The net result can be the continuation of the shift of the balance of power to the East. There is still another factor: the sharpening of cultural contradiction in the West. In Europe, Islam is becoming a counter-culture in many European countries. The Islamic values could bring many students into direct conflict with the prevailing western values. For example, very recently in a public school in a European country, two male students refused to shake hands with female teachers since this was contrary to their understanding of Islamic values. The school initially accepted the students’ demand. However, the female teachers and the teacher’s union are objecting the decision because they feel that the decision discriminates against women. These cultural conflicts will further weaken Europe’s chances of competing with Asian countries. America may face similar problems; the only difference from Europe will be that instead of religion, race may play the same role.
The economic crisis in the West will adversely affect its quality of education. In all probability, the economies of Asian countries are likely to grow at a much higher rate than the western countries. The Asian countries will have relatively more resources to invest in quality education, which will in turn help them to widen their lead in education. There is very little chance of reversal of this trend. After being dominated by the West for two centuries, Asia now seems to be in a position to teach lessons to the West. Asia is going to take the lead in knowledge and innovation, and this lead will continue to widen. It is unlikely that this situation will change.
Dr. Sawraj Singh, MD F.I.C.S. is the Chairman of the Washington State Network for Human Rights and Chairman of the Central Washington Coalition for Social Justice. He can be reached at [email protected].
