By Dr. Sawraj Singh
Just as in the story about the three little pigs and the big bad wolf, the western policy to isolate Russia and China seems to be failing miserably. Not only does this policy seem to have failed to isolate Russia and China, they seem to be emerging stronger. This policy also seems to have further widened the Trans-Atlantic gap. Visible cracks have started showing between the US and its European allies. For example, Germany, the leading European economic power, has come out openly against the sanctions imposed on Russia by the West. European countries seem to feel that the economic sanctions against Russia have backfired. They have hurt more the European countries which have imposed the sanctions than Russia. Even bringing the prices down for crude oil has hurt American allies more than Russia.
Many European countries want to revive their economic relations with Russia. The oil prices have already started moving up. Russia seems to have weathered the storm. Russia was able to sell its oil and gas to China. Therefore, the real losers were the American allies in the Middle East who lost the market to Russia. The European countries have also realized that while Russia had no difficulty finding alternative markets for its oil and gas, they will have a big problem in securing safe and stable sources of oil and gas supply. Russia is the source of the safest, most stable and reliable sources of oil and gas supplies to the European countries, but the same cannot be said of the Middle Eastern countries. In a strange way, the sanctions made the European countries realize this fact. Therefore, Russia is the net gainer and America’s Middle East allies are the net losers.
Just like the western attempts to isolate and weaken Russia have failed in Europe, their similar attempts in Asia to isolate and weaken China have failed. China is clearly emerging stronger and stronger in both military and economic fields. Militarily, the U.S. failed to intimidate China with its military power in the South China Sea. China retaliated to every provocative move by the U.S. At best, the conflict can be called a draw. However, in the economic and technological fields, China is a clear winner. America has been unable to dislodge China from its position as the engine for the world economy. China has just produced the fastest computer in the world, without any American help and without any American parts. This clearly gives a signal to the world that America has lost its last remaining field of domination, computer technology, to China.
The western, particularly American, policies have almost forced Russia and China into an alliance. Both countries find themselves in identical, and almost parallel, situations. The western countries are constantly trying to isolate and weaken them to a point that the two countries feel themselves in a state of siege. They have strongly and vigorously fought back. This struggle has given them an impetus and momentum to move forward. On the other hand, the western countries seem to have lost their enthusiasm and spirit to forge ahead, and as a result are facing a mentality of stagnation and lack of purpose and incentive to move forward. Any impartial observer will come to this conclusion that not only the balance of power has shifted to the East, but enthusiasm, spirit and momentum have also shifted there. Therefore, Russia and China are not only winning militarily and economically, but also winning psychologically and emotionally.
The West should know that unlike the Cold War era, the conflict is not bipolar. During the Cold War, the main clash was between America and its European allies on one side and the Soviet Union and its East European allies. Now, the conflict is much more complicated. The world has become multipolar with many power centers. The main conflict is not between America and its European allies on one side and Russia and China on the other side, but is between the dominant consumeristic capitalist culture and the other cultures.
America is the leader of consumeristic capitalist culture. The conflict between America and Russia and between America and China are actually the manifestation of the same cultural contradiction. The West’s conflict with Islam is also part of the same contradiction. There is even a potential contradiction between Europe and America because many European nationalists see America as a bigger threat to their cultures than Russia. They even see Russia as a potential ally in their struggle against the dominant American culture.
It will be very difficult if not impossible for America to line up the rest of the world against Russia and China. If America gets entangled in a war against Russia and China, then many other cultures may see this as an opportunity to free themselves from the domination of the consumeristic capitalist (American) culture. In this context, we can clearly see two trends already. Radical Islam has declared its own war against the dominant consumeristic capitalist culture, and the nationalists in Europe have started asserting themselves against American domination. Unlike the Cold War, when the whole western Europe was united and supported America against the Soviet Union, the nationalist forces in Europe see Russia as more of a champion of their cause rather than an enemy. A war with Russia in Europe, instead of uniting Europe with America to oppose Russia, Europe will be completely divided with many forces splitting from America and can actually end up supporting Russia.
In Asia, it is almost impossible for America to match the Chinese strength. The Southeast Asian countries are extremely reluctant to get involved in a direct confrontation with China. The American hopes are mainly on India, Japan and Australia to form a quadrilateral alliance. However, each one of these three countries is not a realistic match against China. India has the population base, but is far behind China in its economical and technological sources. Japan has the economic and technological sources, but lacks the population base to fight a major war with China. Australia has neither the population nor the economic and technological resources to fight a major war with China. Actually, the Australian economy is very much dependent on China and China can bring Australia to its knees without even fighting a war.
America should come out of the Cold War mentality and face the new realities of the world today. Unlike the victory against the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the balance of power is very much against it and a victory is extremely difficult and unlikely if not impossible. Instead of fighting the reality of a multipolar world, America will be better off accepting it. This will not only be good for America but also for the rest of the world.
Dr. Sawraj Singh, MD F.I.C.S. is the Chairman of the Washington State Network for Human Rights and Chairman of the Central Washington Coalition for Social Justice. He can be reached at [email protected].
