By Dr. Sawraj Singh
Tension between India and Pakistan has increased after the terrorist attack on the Indian soldiers in Kashmir and after India retaliated with a surgical strike on the other side of the LOC.
Polarization of the region increased further when China and America have taken opposite sides in the conflict. China has thrown its support behind Pakistan while America is backing India. The biggest danger is that the regional conflict can escalate to a global conflict and the South Asia can become an arena for the Third World War. In the worst scenario, India and Russia can be on the opposite side in such a war. In a confrontation between China and America, Russia will join forces with China as it has shown in the South China region. 
India should try to learn correct lessons from history. In the seventies India had an alliance with the Soviet Union. After the Chinese revolution of 1949, China considered America as its number one enemy. America also considered the Chinese communists as more dangerous and uncompromising than the Russian communists. It was unimaginable that the two countries could come together. However, after India and the Soviet Union were able to dismember Pakistan, the Chinese communists changed their perceptions. Mao’s thinking was that now the Soviet Union has become more dangerous for China. He gave two reasons for this. First, America was like an old tiger while the Soviet Union was like a young tiger. The old tiger cannot live very long and its teeth and claws become less sharp. On the other hand, the younger tiger is more aggressive and will be around for much longer time. Second, America is ten thousand miles away where as the Soviet Union is right next door. For these reasons he decided to join forces with America against the Soviet Union. However, before joining America, China extracted maximum concessions from America. Basically, America agreed to all the Chinese demands. Once America and China joined forces, the balance of power shifted towards them. Eventually, the Soviet Union collapsed. India felt that it had no other choice than to join the American camp. However, unlike China India joined the camp on the American terms. America-China alliance was an alliance of convenience and opposition to the Soviet Union was the only thing which kept them together. Once the Soviet Union collapsed and India on its side, America felt that it can now cut China to size. America felt that China has no alternative except to accept its domination. However, China once again did something which nobody could have expected. It joined forces with Russia against American hegemony. Just like America, Russia agreed to almost all the Chinese conditions because just like America, it had to have China on its side. India is the natural leader of South Asia. Pakistan is no match for India. India has much larger economy, much bigger population and is much more technologically advanced. It has more natural resources. India cannot behave with Pakistan like Pakistan is behaving with India. Being much larger power and the natural leader of the region, India is expected to act in a more mature and responsible manner. If there is peace and harmony in the region then India will be the biggest beneficiary. Unfortunately the reverse is also true. India’s interests are best served by maintaining peace, harmony and stability in the region. South Asia region is a multicultural region which is bound together by a common civilization. Unity in the region can make this an important center of power in the world. India should also reconsider its decision to move closer to America to counter the growing influence of China. The situation is much more complex than a simple equation of India and America versus Pakistan and China. What will be the role of Russia? Russia is very seriously considering the possibility of a nuclear Third World War with the west. Russia is even preparing its citizens for such a war. Russia feels that the war in Syria can escalate to such a war. Even today Russia has more nuclear war heads than America. Russia finds itself in a situation like Pakistan. Pakistan has much smaller economy and population base than India. Therefore Pakistan cannot fight a conventional war with India. A conventional war between the two countries is very likely to become a nuclear war. Similarly, Russia has a much smaller economy and population base than the west. If the west starts a conventional war with Russia, Russia will almost be forced to turn it in to a nuclear war. The only way Russia can match the economic and population resources of the west is by joining China. If China joins Russia in the conventional war then together they are more than a match for the west. However, in that scenario the west will be under tremendous pressure to have India on their side to match the Chinese population advantage. Therefore, in a Third World War India and Russia can find themselves on the opposite sides. India should seriously consider this possibility and come out of the simple Pakistan and China versus India and America equation. India’s other friends in the region may also have to chose the opposite camp. Iran, Vietnam, Nepal, Bangla Desh, Burma and even Sri Lanka may eventually tilt toward Russia-China axis. India should try to learn from what is happening in Philippines a country which could easily win title of America’s most faithful ally. Now, it is clearly moving toward Russia- China axis. Another argument in favor of a U.S.-India alliance is that both the countries are fighting Islamic terrorism. However, a close analysis of the situation will show that America is not seriously or sincerely fighting Islamic terrorism. First, it was America which used the Islamic terrorists to bring down the Soviet Union. Second, America used them to bring down Gaddafi in Libya. Third, America is still using them in Syria to get rid of Assad. Whereas, India is a victim of Islamic terrorism, America in a way is a perpetrator of Islamic terrorism. Obviously the two countries do not have identical interests in fighting terrorism. Again, it is Russia which is really engaged in fighting Islamic terrorism in Syria. Russia and India can be considered in the same boat. American interests are best served by maintaining the status quo in the world that is to continue the western dominated unipolar world order. On the other hand, India’s interests are best served in a multipolar world order. This should bring India closer to Russia- China axis rather than America and the west. India should try to revive its traditional friendship with Russia keeping in mind that unlike America and the west, Russia is a regional player. If we have Russia on our side then we can change the balance of power in the region. China and Russia cannot go against each other because they cannot take on America without the help of the other. A close Russia-India relationship can go a long way in avoiding the South Asian region becoming arena for the Third World War. India should focus more on the South Asia region and instead of weakening SARC; it should strengthen it and develop it in to a South Asian Economic Alliance. Regional cooperation can go a long way in keeping this area peaceful and harmonious.
Dr. Sawraj Singh, MD F.I.C.S. is the Chairman of the Washington State Network for Human Rights and Chairman of the Central Washington Coalition for Social Justice. He can be reached at [email protected].
