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New Poll Says NDP Making Some Gains As We Head To Election On May 9

According to the poll, with the level of support the NDP currently has, it would likely win 49 seats, just over the mark for a majority government. The Liberals would win 34 seats and the Greens would take four. Taking into account past polling errors, however, the Liberals are still capable of winning a slim majority government of their own — their projected high range tops out at 45 seats. But the New Democrats could also win an even larger majority, while the Greens could win as few as two seats and as many as 12. Undoubtedly, the B.C. New Democrats will not be taking for granted a lead in the polls, particularly after the shock of the 2013 result. But unlike the polls four years ago, the trends appear to be heading in the NDP’s direction — for now.

VANCOUVER – At the mid-point of the British Columbia election campaign, the B.C. New Democrats under John Horgan continue to hold a lead over Christy Clark’s B.C. Liberals — and that lead is widening.

The NDP holds 42.5 per cent support according to the CBC’s B.C. Poll Tracker, an aggregation of all available polling data, up 1.2 points over where the party stood on Apr. 11. The Liberals follow at 34.7 per cent, down just over three points, reported CBC News.

The Greens have gained a little more than a point and sit at 20.1 per cent, while another 2.7 per cent of British Columbians are projected to be supporting other parties and independent candidates.

With these levels of support, the NDP would likely win 49 seats, just over the mark for a majority government. The Liberals would win 34 seats and the Greens would take four.

Taking into account past polling errors, however, the Liberals are still capable of winning a slim majority government of their own — their projected high range tops out at 45 seats. But the New Democrats could also win an even larger majority, while the Greens could win as few as two seats and as many as 12.

But the polling in this campaign remains relatively thin. Since it officially began, only Mainstreet Research and Justason Market Intelligence have published new surveys. The Mainstreet poll points to positive trend lines for the NDP and Greens, with the Liberals either stagnating or dropping in support.

This is in some contrast to 2013, when the B.C. Liberals showed growth throughout the campaign. But the lack of polling from other companies makes it more difficult to confirm these trends.

A large proportion of the electorate remains undecided: 21 per cent according to the Mainstreet/Postmedia poll published Tuesday. But the poll suggests that this group of voters may be unlikely to break in favour of the B.C. Liberals, stopping the party from closing the gap.

The poll found just 15 per cent of undecided voters have a favourable view of Clark, compared to 49 per cent who hold an unfavourable view. That makes for a -34 rating, far worse than Horgan’s -7 rating (16 per cent favourable to 23 per cent unfavourable).

Undoubtedly, the B.C. New Democrats will not be taking for granted a lead in the polls, particularly after the shock of the 2013 result. But unlike the polls four years ago, the trends appear to be heading in the NDP’s direction — for now.

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