The Second World War started in 1939 when Germany attacked Poland and ended in 1945 when Japan surrendered. It is estimated that between70 to 80 million people died as the result of this war. This is the largest number of people dying in any war in history. However, if a Third World War starts then the deaths and destruction can be much higher because countries have much more destructive weapons which can almost wipe off the entire population of the world. At this time it looks like that the Indian subcontinent can become the arena for the Third World War.
If we look at the causes of the two world wars then it becomes clear that the main cause was the conflict between the dominant power and the rising power. England was the dominant power and Germany was the rising power. Today, America is the dominant power and China is the rising power. The Indian Subcontinent can become the arena of showdown between these powers. The Indian subcontinent has the largest population in the world. India and Pakistan are the two largest countries in the Subcontinent and both are leaning in the opposite directions. India is leaning toward America and Pakistan is leaning toward China. If a war starts between these countries then America and China can be drawn in the war and the war can change in to a Third World War. Kashmir is the main area of contention between the two countries. If a war starts between the two countries on the issue of Kashmir then it has the potential of escalating into a Third World War.
The main emphasis of the American foreign policy at this time seems to contain and isolate China. In this context America seems to be working on two fronts. In Europe, America’s European allies are trying to wean Russia away from China. They are trying to convince Russia that it belongs to the European community. Therefore, Europe should be its top priority instead of Asia. At present, Russian policy is clearly tilted to the east. Its relation with China is the most important relation. Russia is both a European country and an Asian country because the Ural Mountains which separate Europe and Asia pass through Russia. Russia’s Asian part is very vast and still very less developed. It is also very rich in natural resources. Russia is trying to develop Siberia and China is playing a big role in this. Similarly, Russia is trying to develop area around Vladivostok. It is even offering free land to people to build houses there. Russia has invited India to invest in the development of this area. However, the European countries continue to apply more pressure on Russia to change its priorities
On the Asian front, America’s main emphasis seems to make India stand against China. If there is a confrontation between India and China then America has a win-win situation. Such a confrontation will weaken both the countries. America considers China its main rival. However, it also considers India its potential adversary. It seems that India has not extensively considered this issue before taking a decision on Kashmir. India feels that the western countries are supporting India’s stand. However, the past record of the western countries is not encouraging. They have supported the resolutions on Kashmir which were against the Indian stand on the issue. Russia had to veto these resolutions. Even if they support the Indian stand now, India should question their motives. They probably want a confrontation between India and China.
China also feels that it has interests in the Kashmir region. Ladakh used to be a part of China till the nineteenth century when the Sikhs conquered it and made it a part of their kingdom (Khalsa Raj). In the 1962 war between India and China, China occupied a part of Ladakh. Therefore, a border dispute is still there in the area and has to be resolved. China’s one belt one initiative passes through a part of the Pakistan occupied Kashmir which is a disputed area. For all these reasons China can be drawn if a war starts between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. If China comes on the side of Pakistan then America can come on the side of India. Therefore, a war between India and Pakistan over Kashmir has the potential of becoming a Third World War.
India and Pakistan are the two largest countries in the subcontinent. They should act with restraint and try everything to avoid a war between them. India is the largest and the leading country in the region. Therefore, India has a moral responsibility of maintaining peace and stability in the region.
By Dr. Sawraj Singh
Dr. Sawraj Singh, MD F.I.C.S. is the Chairman of the Washington State Network for Human Rights and Chairman of the Central Washington Coalition for Social Justice. He can be reached at [email protected].
