The federal Liberals were dealt another difficult defeat last week, losing a once-comfortable seat in Montreal, adding to a string of byelection losses the party has suffered in what used to be metro strongholds.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute illuminates how sinking national support has affected the incumbent party’s positioning in key cities across the country. In Greater Montreal, where the party lost the recent LaSalle – Émard – Verdun byelection to the Bloc Québécois, support for the Liberals has declined by 22 points since the beginning of 2022. In the city of Winnipeg, where a loss to the NDP was expected in the historically NDP riding of Elmwood – Transcona, Liberal support has dropped 17 points.
The harbinger of the Liberal’s metro downfall was perhaps the party’s June loss of Toronto – St. Paul’s, a riding that had elected a Liberal in every election dating back to 1993. The downtown core of Toronto has been swept by the Liberals in every federal election under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. That likely won’t be the case in the next one unless things change drastically. In downtown Toronto, the Liberals and CPC under Pierre Poilievre are tied, while in the suburbs ringing the city, the Conservatives are the choice of a plurality of 45 per cent.
Metro Vancouver was a three-way race in 2021, with the NDP, Liberals and CPC each winning seats in the region. In current vote intention, the CPC have pulled ahead, with 40 per cent in Metro Vancouver saying they would vote for the Conservatives if an election were held today. The NDP are in second with 30 per cent. The Liberals, who were in the lead in vote intention at the beginning of 2022, have fallen to third, with 21 per cent support.
Perhaps at issue for urban voters is the lack of progress by the federal Liberals on key issues such as housing affordability and public safety. Canadians living in urban areas (33%) are much more concerned about the cost of housing than those living outside of them (22%). And crime and public safety rank as a top five issue in Vancouver (27%), Winnipeg (32%), and Toronto’s core (21%) and suburbs (23%).
Dissatisfaction with Liberal government drives double-digit drop in urban support
