Four-in-five believe this to be ‘one of the most important elections’ in American history
A whirlwind month in politics appears to have catalyzed the presidential race, with reports that Kamala Harris has the support of enough delegates to receive the Democratic nomination formally at the party’s national convention, which begins on Aug. 19. After President Joe Biden announced he would step aside, his vice president will step up and face former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump for the highest office in the nation.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds Harris energizing the Democratic campaign and entering with a slight overall advantage in vote intent. Currently 44 per cent of American registered voters say they would support her bid, a two-point edge over Trump. Key at play are racial and generational dynamics.
The Harris vote is younger and more diverse, with a massive advantage among non-white would-be voters (56% to 25%) and those younger than 35 years of age (50% to 32%). For Trump, the white vote is stalwart in his favour, as he generates a 14-point advantage over Harris (51% to 37%). While he trails among 18- to 34-year-olds, and is tied among the 35 to 54 group, he holds an eight-point edge among those 55 years of age and older (49% to 40%).
Aside from the battle of personalities, the vast majority of Americans (82%) say this election is one of the most important in the nation’s history, while half say is about the issues. For Harris voters this means the future of democracy, reproductive rights, and the battle against climate change. For Trump voters, priorities are the economy, inflation, and security along the southern border.
One key priority for Harris in the coming weeks will be to galvanize voters around one of two ideas – that she is the better qualified candidate, or that she is a bulwark against a worse option. Currently, half of her supporters say they’ll vote for her because they like what she stands for, while half say they simply want to block Trump. For Trump supporters, 87 per cent say they support him because of what he stands for, a defining difference between these two similarly sized groups.
Asked which leader is better on a host of key issues, Trump holds advantages on economic issues like taxation and inflation, as well as southern border security. Harris is seen as better on reproductive rights, climate change, and upholding democracy. Notably, the candidates are within five points of each other on job creation (46% Trump, 41% Harris).
Asked about “mass deportation” of southern border migrants, half of Americans support this idea. One-in-five Harris voters (21%) would support this, compared to 87 per cent of Trump voters.
Harris voters are twice as likely (69% to 31%) to say that they believe the November election will be contested in a free and fair fashion compared to Trump voters.
