By Dr. Sawraj Singh
One of the characteristics of western capitalism is that it always passes through sinusoidal cycles of recessions, depressions, and recoveries. Therefore, many people think that the present crisis of western capitalism is just another temporary phenomenon. However, the present crisis is different. In all likelihood, the West will not fully recover from this and when this crisis resolves, there will be fundamental changes in the world. A new world order will emerge in which there is no western domination or American hegemony.
The crisis is not temporary because the underlying causes are not transitory, but long-standing trends. The main reasons for the decline of the West are loss of the manufacturing base and loss of the cheap natural resources of third world countries. These two phenomena have made the economic infrastructure of the west weak. Gradually, the western countries kept shifting their economies from manufacturing to the service sector. As a result of this policy, the manufacturing base was lost. The western economies became thoroughly parasitic. After colonization, the western countries gained complete control over the natural resources of the third world countries. Their economies became completely dependent upon the extremely cheap natural resources of the third world countries. The prosperity of western countries was primarily based upon the principle of uneven exchange. They sold their products at very high rates and purchased the natural products of the third world countries at very cheap rates.
Two factors changed the old equation. First, because of the loss of the manufacturing base, the western countries had very few products to sell. Second, other countries, particularly China, became big competitors for buying the natural products of the third world countries. China was able to gain access to the natural resources of the third world countries, particularly African and Latin American countries. China has greatly limited the free (and unchallenged) access of western countries to the natural resources of the third world countries. The parasitic western economies were bound to be very adversely affected by the loss of extremely cheap natural products of the third world.
Another factor which has made the west economically weak is the attack of Islamic fundamentalists upon western economic interests. The west was able to divert that attack for a time when it incited Islamic fundamentalists against secular forces and the Shia minority. The Islamic fundamentalists joined forces with the West against Gaddafi in Libya and Assad in Syria. Similarly, the western allies such as Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, and Turkey were joining forces against Iran.
However, the defeat in Syria has not only thoroughly demoralized these alliess and Israel; it has also forced the Islamic fundamentalists to reconsider their policies. A vast majority of Muslims in the world not only hate the consumerist western culture, but also hate the lifestyles of the oil-rich Emirs and Sheikhs in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. They have never accepted the interpretation of Islam, which is being propagated by these western alliess. The Islamic fundamentalists saw a risk of being perceived as being in the same boat of these western allies. Al Qaeda and Ayman al Zawahiri had to come out and clearly state that America remains their biggest enemy, and hurting its economic interest remains their main goal. The recent attacks in Kenya and Nigeria show that the Islamic fundamentalists want to reestablish their anti western prerception and prove that they have not compromised with the West.
It is becoming clear that all of the factors which led to the economic decline of the west have not changed. Therefore, the trend of the economic decline of the west is unlikely to change. The west is going to continue to face growing competition from China, Russia and the developing countries on one hand, and the wrath of Islamic fundamentalism on the other hand. Under this dual pressure, the West cannot maintain its domination and hegemony for very long. I feel that western capitalism will collapse before the middle of the century. However, if it commits a blunder such as attacking a country like Syria, Iran, or North Korea (the so-called Axis of Evil), then the demise of western capitalism will come much sooner, perhaps in this decade.
The West should read the writing on the wall that its domination and hegemony of the last two centuries are not going to last in this century and will end soon. Starting a Third World War will not help; it will only hasten and worsen western decline and the suffering of the people of the world. In the first two World Wars, the contradiction between the established power and the emerging power could not be resolved peacefully because both were western powers. This time the situation is different. The established power is western (US), and the emerging power is eastern (China). Therefore, there is a realistic chance of a peaceful resolution of the contradiction between them. China has eastern wisdom instead of western arrogance. Eastern wisdom believes in coexistence and harmony. If eastern wisdom prevails over western arrogance, then the whole world can be saved. A peaceful transition from a western-dominated unipolar world to a multipolar world can be beneficial for both the East and the West.
Dr. Sawraj Singh, MD F.I.C.S. is the Chairman of the Washington State Network for Human Rights and Chairman of the Central Washington Coalition for Social Justice. He can be reached at [email protected].
