By Dr. Sawraj Singh
Russia and India have just signed a deal for the S-400 Triumf missile system worth 5.43 billion dollars, and President Putin was in India to sign the deal. The S-400 missile system is considered the best missile system in the world. China and Turkey are the other two countries who have already signed such deals with Russia. Many countries, including Saudi Arabia, want to acquire this missile system. America has put a lot of pressure on India to prevent it from going through with this deal. It has threatened India with sanctions under the CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act). However, India has so far defied America and gone ahead with the deal. Eight other agreements were also signed. This is a very important milestone in the revival of the traditional Russia-India friendship and may signal a fundamental shift in India’s policy. This will give a big boost to realization of multipolar world.
Putin also discussed Russian-Indian privileged strategic partnership, international and regional issues. These included energy cooperation, situation in Syria, situation in Afghanistan, Iran nuclear deal and Russia’s military relations with Pakistan. Russia has already expressed concern about India moving away from its traditional policy of trying to keep an equal distance with America and Russia and tilting toward America. Russian and Indian leaders also attended a Russian-Indian Business Forum. Agreements on cooperation in space, agriculture and nuclear sector were also signed. Russian involvement in the Indian Railway sector, aluminum exports, agricultural access, Arctic LNG and Far East LNG options, development of natural resources of Siberia, Yamal and the continental shelf in Russia; as well as Kudankulam 5 and 6 nuclear projects were also discussed. Both countries want to boost bilateral cooperation in the United Nations, Shanghai Cooperation Organization and in the G20. They will coordinate their efforts to counter terrorism. Both countries support a multipolar world.
It was felt that trade between the two countries should be tripled to 30 billion dollars by the year 2025 from the present of about 9 billion dollars a year. At present, India’s trade with China is about 85 billion dollars a year, and with America it is about 75 billion dollars a year. Compared to this, its trade with Russia is only about 9 billion dollars a year. Russia’s trade with China used to be less than its trade with India. However, at present, this has increased to about 85 billion dollars a year and both countries want to increase it to about 200 billion dollars a year. It is obvious that the full potential for Russia-India trade is more than 10 times the present trade volume. Russia can also help India to join the Eurasian Economic Union of which Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia are members. This can give India an opportunity to further expand its trade significantly.
It is obvious that India has a very big potential to expand its trade in the central Asian and Eurasian regions. India does not have that kind of potential to expand its trade with America or Europe. America does not see its trade potential in Asia-Pacific region. That is why Trump has decided to pull America out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Instead, he is trying to revive the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). It should make it very clear to India that compared to Russia, Central Asia and the Eurasian region, India’s potential to significantly expand its trade with America and the West is very limited.
Similarly, India can significantly expand its trade with the Asian countries such as China and Iran, compared to America and Europe. China is an expanding economy which is soon going to become the largest economy of the world. Its share of the world trade is growing, whereas American and European shares are decreasing. Moreover, even some American economic experts feel that China is more likely to emerge victorious in the current US-China trade war. Both India and China seem to be seriously trying to reduce tensions and improve relations. Wuhan summit between President Xi Jinping and Prime minister Modi was a big step in this direction.
India’s trade relations with Iran are very important. India has already invested a great deal in the Chabahar Port Project. India can get oil and gas from Iran much cheaper than from any other country. Just like India stood up to American pressure and did not back away from the S-400 missile deal with Russia, similarly it should not back away from the deals it made with Iran.
Revived Russia-India traditional friendship will also have a positive impact on India-China relations. Improved India-China ties will, in turn, have a favorable impact on the South Asian region as well as on the rest of Asia. Good India-China relations will also promote peace and stability in the world. In the last two centuries, under western domination and hegemony, there has been imbalance in relations between the East and the West. Russia, India and China coming together can correct this imbalance and restore balance of power in the world.
India should work with Russia and China to change the western-dominated economic and trade institutions, which are based upon inequality, and make them more equal for everyone. If India works with these countries, then it can make American and western sanctions ineffective. India should also work with these countries to break the monopoly of dollar on the world trade. For example, trade with Russia should be Rupee-Ruble trade, and with China it should be Rupee-Yuan trade. This will deliver a significant blow to dollar’s monopoly on world trade. America and the western countries should move away from the policy of confrontation, such as imposing sanctions, and try to learn merits of cooperation. They have to understand that the new multipolar world will be very different than the old, western-dominated world. Revival of Russia-India friendship and improved India-China relations can help to make this world more equal, fair, safe and prosperous. Putin-Modi summit will prove to be a very important milestone in the evolution of a new world order. Russia, India and China should forge together toward a multipolar world.
Dr. Sawraj Singh, MD F.I.C.S. is the Chairman of the Washington State Network for Human Rights and Chairman of the Central Washington Coalition for Social Justice. He can be reached at [email protected].