The language on much-debated fossil fuels has been changed in the draft global stocktake (GST) text at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai following overnight consultations. It now refers to transitioning away from them in a just and equitable manner to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
United Arab Emirates officials on Wednesday said that COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber earlier met parties individually and tried to strike a balance between science and the principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR). “This is a party-driven multilateral process and it is now up to the parties. As president, they have tried their best to hear out everyone,” an official said.
The overnight consultations between the COP28 presidency and the parties over some of the contentious points in the draft GST text helped arrive at a “palatable language”, the officials said.
The text calls for including principles of equity and CBDR. “Further recognizes the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in line with 1.5°C pathways and calls on Parties to contribute to the following global efforts, in a nationally determined manner, taking into account the Paris Agreement and their different national circumstances, pathways, and approaches,” says the section on mitigation and meeting the 1.5°C goal.
The pathways include tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. The text seeks to accelerate efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power as well as towards net zero emission energy systems.
The text seeks to utilize zero- and low-carbon fuels well before or by around mid-century. It calls for accelerating zero- and low-emission technologies, including, inter alia, renewables, nuclear, abatement, and removal technologies such as carbon capture and utilization and storage, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, and low-carbon hydrogen production.
The text backs accelerating and substantially reducing non-carbon-dioxide emissions globally, including in particular methane emissions by 2030. It underlines the need for accelerating the reduction of emissions from road transport on a range of pathways, including through the development of infrastructure and rapid deployment of zero and low-emission vehicles apart from phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.
The text “encourages” parties to come forward in their next nationally determined contributions (NDCs) with ambitious, economy-wide emission reduction targets, covering all greenhouse gases, sectors, and categories and aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, as informed by the latest science, in the light of different national circumstances.
Council on Energy, Environment and Water fellow Vaibhav Chaturvedi said the updated text can be best described as bittersweet for the developing world. “The good part is [the] removal of language around no new investments in coal power plants, a nod to the infeasibility of such ideas for rapidly growing developing economies.” He added there is nothing meaningful about finance. “The language around fossil energy is weak with not even a mention of phase down. Maybe this is the best that a COP being guided by the invisible hand of oil lobbies can deliver.”
Developing countries and petrostates have been wary of committing to the phase-out of fossil fuels. The wealthier nations have also failed to deliver on their obligation of providing climate finance.
The blocs are almost split between developing and developed nations. Both sides agree that the ultimate goal of keeping average temperatures from exceeding 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era average will be at peril without the other doing their part.
Civil society groups and developed nations, including the United States (US), and the European Union (EU), have opposed any mild wording on fossil fuels. Groups of emerging and developing economies opposed phasing out fossil fuels when it is not in line with the principles of CBDR and without adequate finance to deliver this transition.
An Indian negotiator said emerging economies such as India sought the inclusion of principles of CBDR and equity in almost all provisions. They also sought a modification of serial number 39 listing eight options that countries could use to cut emissions. “We have sought a modification of this entire paragraph to reflect CBDR and equity,” another negotiator said.
The impasse boiled down to financing and fossil fuels. Center for Biological Diversity energy justice director Jean Su said the US and other rich, fossil fuel-producing countries are not yet offering finance to seal the deal on a phase-out of fossil fuels. “They are sabotaging an agreement on a fossil fuel phase-out if they also refuse to finance the transition to renewable energy in poor countries. As the world’s largest historical emitter and number one oil and gas producer, it is incumbent on the US to make finance part of a COP28 package that assures commitment to phase out fossil fuels across the globe.”
