As the runway shortens for all parties to make gains and lock in votes in this federal election campaign, new data from Ipsos and Angus Reid Institute show the race is tightening between the incumbent Liberals and the challenger Conservatives.
According to Angus Reid for the CPC, these data represent the first glimmer of hope in several weeks, as their support ticks up ever so slightly, while Liberal support remains statistically unchanged, though down a point to 45 per cent.
On the other hand Ipsos Polls show the Liberal party (42%, -4 pts vs. last week) has lost a bit of ground for the first time since the campaign began, and the Conservative party (36%, +2 pts) has narrowed the gap behind the Liberals. Around one in ten Canadians (11%, +1 pt) say that they would vote for the NDP if an election were held today, while 6% would vote for the Bloc Québécois, 2% (-1 pt) would vote for the Green Party, and 1% would vote for the People’s Party or another party, respectively. Eleven percent are undecided (+4 pts vs. last week).
The Angus Reid polls says shift may be attributed to three key things. First, the issues: concern over cost of living and inflation has been climbing since the start of the campaign, up to 56 per cent now, while worries about tariff threats and managing the Trump-Canada relationship has declined, off 12 points in the last month.
This latter issue especially has represented a stronghold of Liberal support in recent weeks. Its diminishment in the minds of Canadians opens space for voters to change their minds.
Secondly, the personal momentum of Prime Minister and Liberal leader Mark Carney – the difference between improving and worsening opinions among Canadians – has slowed to a neutral pace. Canadians are as likely to say their opinion of him has improved (33%) as worsened (31%) over the past week. In recent weeks, Carney had been generating more positive impressions. However, he still holds an advantage over CPC leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh on this metric, both of whom have negative momentum (-20, -27 respectively).
And third, a noticeable shift among some men back to the CPC. If the first weeks of the campaign were notable for the number of men willing to give the Liberals another look post-Trudeau departure, the second half may well be defined by the Conservatives’ attempts – which appear to be bearing fruit – to communicate directly to and woo back male voters. The CPC have regained the lead over the Liberals among men older than 54 (+7), while still leading among men aged 35 to 54 (+9).
The Ipsos poll points out that declining from last week, four in ten Canadians (41%, -4 pts), feel Mark Carney would make the best Prime Minister of Canada, while Pierre Poilievre has picked up the loss as 36% would select him for the job (+4 pts). Just over one in ten (12%) continue to select Jagmeet Singh, stable from last week.
Consistent with the declines in Carney’s momentum elsewhere, 44% say the Carney Liberal government has done a good job and deserves re-election on April 28th (-3 pts) while over half (56%, +3 pts) say it’s time for another federal party to take over in Ottawa. Just over half (52%, +4 pts vs. March 30th) say they approve of the Liberal government under Mark Carney.
Around four in ten (43%) Canadians expect to be tuning into the Federal Leaders debates held on April 16th and 17th, while 21% say they will not watch, and over one-third (36%) are not sure.
When it comes to who Canadians think will win each of the debates, Carney is the clear favourite for the English debate (41%) compared to 29% for Poilievre, and single-digits for the other party leaders. On the other hand, Poilievre (34%) leads Carney (16%) on projected winner of the French debate, with 20% feeling Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet will win the French debate. Around one-quarter in each feel that none of the party leaders will win either the English or French debates.
