Labour Market Outlook predicts more than one million job openings in BC in next 10 years
VICTORIA – British Columbians can expect more than one million well-paying, family-supporting job opportunities and possible career paths over the next 10 years, according to Latest Labour Market Outlook forecast.
The Labour Market Outlook is a 10-year forecast that estimates future supply and demand by industry, occupation, education and geographic region. It highlights the kinds of jobs, skills and competencies that will be most in demand regionally and province-wide over the coming decade.
“The purpose of this report is to provide British Columbians with the knowledge they need to make informed decisions on careers, education, training and hiring. It is a valuable resource for students, job seekers and those considering a career change; for educators and planners; for employers; and for government,” said Selina Robinson, Minister of Post-Secondary Education and Future Skills.
More than one million job openings (1,017,000) are expected between 2022 and 2032. Each year, job openings will account for approximately 3.5 per cent of employment.Of these, 37 per cent are due to expansion in the economy and 63 per cent are due to the need to replace retiring workers.
Labour Market Outlook predicts technology and health care sectors to be key areas to offer opportunities.
The top five major industry groups in terms of job openings through the forecast period are Health care and social assistance (149,700 job openings); Professional, scientific and technical services (148,000); Retail trade (115,500); Construction (72,700); and Educational services (64,500).
Employment in B.C. is expected to reach 3.1 million by 2032, up from the 2.7 million jobs forecasted in 2022. Employment will grow by 1.3 per cent a year on average for the forecast period. Key growth areas will be the technology and health care sectors.
Nearly 80 per cent of job openings over the next ten years will require some form of post-secondary education or training.
Health care and social assistance will post the largest number of job openings from 2022 to 2032, as B.C.’s population continues to age and, with increasing immigration, to grow. The need to replace workers leaving the industry will account for 57 per cent of these openings. The remaining 43 per cent will emerge from growth in the health system to meet the aging population’s increasing health care needs; to help people with mental health and substance use issues; and to respond to expansion of the Care Economy.
Professional, scientific and technical services industries are growing rapidly, and this will continue over the next ten years. Economic growth will drive 55 per cent of expansion job openings in this sector, compared to 37 per cent of job openings across all industries. Over half of the 148,000 job openings will be in Computer systems design and related services.
Some industries also have strong growth over the first year or two due to the ongoing recovery from the pandemic, including Information, culture and recreation and Accommodation and food services.
Retail trade is a large industry in B.C, accounting for 12 per cent of overall employment in the first year of the forecast. Employment in this sector is expected to grow at a rate similar to overall employment growth, with 115,500 job openings over the next ten years.
The construction industry will have about 72,700 job openings, 78 per cent of which will come from replacing workers, mainly due to retirement.
Educational services will have about 64,500 job openings, half of which will be concentrated in Elementary and secondary schools. About 71 per cent of these job openings will be due to replacing exiting workers.
The 2022 BC Labour Market Outlook projects that 636,000 workers will leave the workforce over the coming decade, and only 474,000 young people will enter the workforce to replace them. New residents will fill most of the remaining jobs, but B.C. will still need over 8,000 additional workers each year to fully meet the demand.
From a regional perspective, two-thirds of B.C.’s job openings will be in the Mainland/Southwest, where employment is expected to grow annually by 1.3 per cent. However, the BC Labour Market Outlook forecasts stronger annual growth in the Vancouver Island/Coast (+1.5 per cent) and the Thompson-Okanagan (+1.4 per cent) as workers and employers alike take advantage of comparatively lower housing costs while seeking the amenities of a larger city in centres such as Kelowna, Victoria and Nanaimo.
In all regions, most jobs will come from the need to replace retiring workers rather than expansion. The North Coast and Nechako region is forecasting the highest percentage of job openings from expansion, at 40 per cent, while the Cariboo will have the least, at seven per cent.
The 2022 BC Labour Market Outlook has also begun exploring two of less well-defined sectors of the economy, specifically the Clean Economy which relates to growing the economy while addressing climate change and the environment, and the Care Economy which provides services that care for the wellbeing of people. Both play a critical role in B.C.’s economic and societal well-being and will remain important for many years to come. Anticipating the skills and training needed to support these growing industries now will help prepare for the future.
The Labour Market Outlook uses relevant and up-to-date data from sources including BC Stats, B.C. Ministry of Finance, Statistics Canada and other federal departments. Analysts use a specialized economic modelling system to study the data and factors affecting labour market supply and demand.
For the 2022 edition of the B.C. Labour Market Outlook, the online dashboard and other links, visit: http://workbc.ca/labourmarketoutlook.
With a newly redesigned WorkBC.ca, British Columbians can more easily navigate the wealth of information available, providing career, labour market tools, resources and information about high-opportunity occupations. The improved site connects WorkBC’s training and education opportunities in an easy-to-navigate format.
To access forecast data for all 500 occupations, industries and regions, visit: https://catalogue.data.gov.bc.ca/dataset/labour-market-outlook
