According to polls, the Trudeau Liberals have more support today than it did on election night, suggesting that some Canadians — particularly those who voted for the New Democrats a little over four months ago — have been newly won over by the Liberals’ performance in the early days of their government.
OTTAWA – According to polls, the Trudeau Liberals have more support today than it did on election night, suggesting that some Canadians — particularly those who voted for the New Democrats a little over four months ago — have been newly won over by the Liberals’ performance in the early days of their government.
With the next election now almost four years away, polls say nothing about what the outcome of that vote will be. Instead, they act as a measure of what Canadians are thinking of their political leaders now, reported CBC News.
The last quarter of polling, including all polls conducted and published over the last three months, has been positive for the Liberals. They have averaged 46.6 per cent support, a gain of 7.1 points over where they stood on election night.
The numbers have been consistent over that time, and looking at this larger number of polls provides for more robust regional sample sizes.
The Conservatives have averaged 29.1 per cent support over the last quarter, a drop of 2.8 points from the election. The New Democrats have slipped more dramatically, falling 5.1 points to 14.6 per cent.
The Greens have averaged 5.4 per cent support, up two points from the election.
The Liberal increases in support have come from one end of the country to the other, matching the high levels of satisfaction with the government’s performance that polls have recorded so far. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has averaged an approval rating of 59.8 per cent over the last three months, far outpacing his rivals.
Trudeau’s party led in British Columbia, Ontario and Atlantic Canada, where the party’s support was its highest countrywide. The Liberals were narrowly ahead in the Prairies and trailed only in Alberta, where the party was still up five points.
But nowhere have the Liberals seen a sharper increase in support than in Quebec. The polls put the party at 48.3 per cent support in the province, a gain of 12.6 points since the election.
The increase in approval in Quebec has largely been driven by significant gains made by Trudeau among francophones. At the very end of the election campaign, the party’s support among this group was rated at 28 per cent. Over the last three months, the Liberals have averaged 46 per cent support among francophones in polling by CROP.
Much of this new support has come at the expense of the New Democrats. Polling in the last quarter has also suggested that between 20 to 30 per cent of Canadians who voted for the NDP in October are now siding with the Liberals.
The Conservatives are not looking at such sunny numbers as they continue to find their way as the country’s Official Opposition. Many Canadians are unfamiliar with the party’s interim leader, Rona Ambrose, but her approval ratings suggest she is not the problem.
Conservative drops in support in Alberta, the Prairies and Quebec have been modest at less than three points.
But the Conservatives have lost favour more significantly in British Columbia and Ontario. The party was down 4.6 points in B.C. to 25.3 per cent and dropped 4.1 points in Ontario to 31 per cent support. These are notable losses, considering that the majority victory the party won in 2011 was largely built on strong performances in these two provinces.
