When in 1995, I predicted that in 2013 China’s economy will overtake America’s, very few people believed me. Some even accused me of a pro-Chinese and anti-American tilt. However, it has happened. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its 2014 report on the ranking of countries based upon their Gross Domestic Product (GDP), has declared that China has overtaken America. China’s GDP is $17.632 trillion and its share of the global GDP is 16.47%, America with a GDP of 17.416 trillion and a share of 16.28% of global GDP, is in second place. India overtook Japan and has moved to the third place. The top 10 countries (in descending order) are: China, U.S.A, India, Japan, Germany, Russia, Brazil, France, Indonesia and U.K.
China has not only become the largest economy of the world but its share of world trade also continues to rise. It is the largest exporter and has the largest trade surplus. China is the largest trade partner of many important countries and regions of the world. It has the largest foreign currency reserves. It should be made clear that the current standings by the IMF are based upon purchasing power parity (PPP) rather than currency exchange rate. The IMF feels that it is more important as to what the money can actually buy in a country rather than giving a figure based upon the currency exchange rate.
I feel that by year 2050, India is going to overtake America, which will be pushed to third or even fourth place. For all practical purposes, Western domination and American hegemony will become things of the past. The western-dominated institutions such as the IMF, World Bank and U.N. will either make fundamental changes to reflect the new realities of the world, or they will become irrelevant or obsolete. Institutions such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will play an increasing role in the world economy. Decline and demise of the US as the leading and most powerful country of the world looks a certainty rather than a probability.
The main reasons for the decline of the West are greed and the tendency of western capitalism to become parasitic. The West has lost its manufacturing base. The current western affluence is based upon robbing the Third World countries of their natural resources and cheating them by uneven exchange. The West continued to shift its economy from the manufacturing sector to the services sector. However, the experience of the last two centuries tells us that the country which had the largest manufacturing base also became the dominant country. A good correlation can be established between steel production and overall strength of a country. China has become the manufacturing hub of the world and its steel production is about 10 times the steel production of the U.S. The same can be said of the other western countries. Therefore, their decline and demise as the dominant powers is a certainty. Japan, even though an Eastern country, has chosen to put its lot with western capitalism. No wonder, by boarding a sinking ship, its plight will be no different than the western capitalist countries.
Countries like India, Russia and Brazil will continue to rise in the new world order because of the specific reasons. India has the largest and youngest workforce in the world. Russia and Brazil have over-abundant natural resources. Russia also has its largest stock of nuclear weapons and has already expressed the intention to use them if the West decides to use military force against Russian interests. This translates to an act of suicide by the West if it decides to exert any military option against Russia. Not only will Russia’s nuclear power act as a deterrent but also as a vehicle for Russia to protect its power in the region and the world. Russia’s strong alliance with China, for all practical purposes, takes away the military option from the West to block the rise of the East and prevent its decline and eventual demise. A Third World war is unwinnable and can only hasten western decline and demise.
India claims to follow the policy of looking East. However, India’s actions do not seem to match with its declared policy. India seems to continue its tilt toward the West. The main reason for this is the slavish mentality of the Indian media as well as the Indian intellectual class. Both are unable to part with the colonial legacy. One can hope that the new G.D.P. figures by the IMF will convince India that the rise of the East and the decline of the West are established facts rather than hypothesis. India should put its future with the rising East rather than with the sinking West as Japan has done. India should revive its traditional friendship with Russia.
Dr. Sawraj Singh, MD F.I.C.S. is the Chairman of the Washington State Network for Human Rights and Chairman of the Central Washington Coalition for Social Justice. He can be reached at [email protected].
