By Dr. Sawraj Singh
The relations between America and Pakistan are deteriorating and becoming tense. This poses a great danger to peace and harmony in the South Aarticlesian region. The area appears to be increasingly polarized between America and India on one hand and China and Pakistan on the other hand. This polarization can make this area very unstable. Not only there is a risk of a proxy war between India and Pakistan, but the two superpowers can be directly drawn into the conflict. In other words, the area can become an arena for the Third World War. Besides the war, there are other risks to the area. Increased fundamentalism in Pakistan can also lead to reactionary fundamentalism in India. Islamic fundamentalism has become the leading force in Pakistan. As a reaction to this, Hindu fundamentalism is becoming stronger in India. The forces of moderation and reasoning are being squeezed out. This increases the chance of confrontation rather than a peaceful resolution of the problem.
Some people feel that America should act tough with Pakistan and directly intervene militarily against the Islamic fundamentalists. They feel that Pakistan is too weak and cannot retaliate. However, such thinking belies the ground realities in the region.
While it is true that America is a superpower and Pakistan is a poor third world country, yet Pakistan can retaliate and harm the American interests in a big way. For example, for all practical purposes, America has lost the war in Afghanistan. However, America still needs Pakistan for a planned and smooth withdrawal of its forces from Pakistan. It should not forget the painful lessons of history, such as what happened to the British forces while leaving Afghanistan. In utter desperation or as the ultimate extension of suicide bombing, Pakistan can use the nuclear option against one of the American allies, particularly against India or Israel.
Some may argue that a pre-emptive strike by America or India can neutralize Pakistan’s nuclear capability. However, such an approach is extremely risky. There can be a complete breakdown of law and order in Pakistan resulting in total anarchy and chaos which can easily spill over to the neighboring countries.
The best solution for the region is to develop a South Asian Economic Alliance on the pattern of the European Union. This is the best hope for maintaining peace and harmony in the region. Not only India and Pakistan should be talking to improve trade and other relations between them, but America and China should also encourage the two countries to improve trade and economic relations and work towards forming a South Asian Economic Alliance.
The western countries so far have always encouraged disintegration of the other countries. This can be the first instance where they will be encouraging unity among different countries. The changed historical conditions demand such a change of attitude of the western countries, particularly America. America can even justify this as the lesser of the two evils. America has more to lose if Pakistan becomes more unstable. Everybody will gain if the region becomes more stable, peaceful, and prosperous. The South Asian Economic Alliance can be the ultimate solution to the problems facing the region.
Dr. Sawraj Singh, MD F.I.C.S. is the Chairman of the Washington State Network for Human Rights and Chairman of the Central Washington Coalition for Social Justice. He can be reached at [email protected] or 509-962-3652.
