By Dr. Sawraj Singh
As the election process is coming to close, it appears that the BJP led alliance may fall short of an absolute majority and a third front government, supported by the Congress Party, can also have a chance to come in power. After the Delhi assembly elections, I commented that this scenario could be repeated in the center also. Now, it looks to me that my impression was not totally unrealistic. I happened to be in Delhi when the results of the assembly were declared. The media was giving the AAP only 2-4 seats and they were certain that the BJP will form the government. However, the AAP surprised everybody and won 28 seats. The Congress party decided to extend support to the AAP and the government headed by Kejriwal was formed. I felt that this scenario could be repeated in the center. The media has given the elections to Modi and they have practically written off the AAP and Kejriwal. However, they may be in for another rebuff just like they got in the Delhi elections. The BJP, in its traditional area, the Hindi belt and the northern and the central part of the country, may increase its seats but is unlikely to sweep this area. In the south and the East, it can increase its share of votes but is unlikely to get more seats. There seems to be increasing polarization, with most of the powerful leaders in the Hindi belt and the other parts of the country, seem to be taking stand against the BJP. In this category of leaders, we can count Mulayam singh of the SP,Mayawati of the B S P, Nitish kumar and Lalu Parsad in Bihar . Add Mamta Banerjee in the east and Jayalalitha in the south. These trends are pointing in the direction that the Congress party’s loss may not be the B J P’s gain.
The AAP and Kejriwal can play the role of a wild card. Those people who had completely written them off, are having second thoughts now. Even in the state like Punjab where the third force never had any chance, the AAP seems to be becoming a significant factor in the three constituencies, Sangrur, Ludhiana and Patiala. If the APP can come close to getting 30 seats then Kejriwal can play a very important role as a gathering point for the various diverse forces who want to block Modi from coming to power. The Congress party may not be left with any other option than to throw its support behind the third force. It will try to justify that as a support for the secular and the democratic forces to prevent coming in to power of the communal and the fascist forces
India is a very diverse country. Therefore, the two party system of the west, cannot succeed here. It is a multinational and multicultural region. The regional parties are closer to the ground realities of India compared to the parties such as the congress and B J P, who advocate a strong center. If the B J P and Modi cannot win this time, then the two party system, may undergo a fundamental change. A party such as AAP, even though a country wide party, yet loose enough to accommodate the diversity, may prove more practical on the Indian scenario.
The leftist parties seem to have recognized the significance of the emergence of a party like the APP. The congress party may be forced to do that. The B J P and Modi seem to be the last force which is engaged in the last ditch battle to maintain the status quo in India, that is, the western two party system. If they do not succeed this time then the two party system of the west, which has been there since independence, will undergo fundamental change. The two party system of the west, in the final analysis, is a colonial legacy which is neither practical nor useful for a diverse country like India. India can stay united with the fundamental principle of “UNITY IN DIVERSITY“. The two party system of the west basically comes in conflict with this fundamental principle. All the political parties should reconsider their attitude and recognize the fact that the situation and the concrete conditions in India are basically different than the western countries.
Dr. Sawraj Singh, MD F.I.C.S. is the Chairman of the Washington State Network for Human Rights and Chairman of the Central Washington Coalition for Social Justice. He can be reached at [email protected].
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