If polls are any indication, the election is clearly Dix to lose but the BC Liberals are so far down that even if the veteran NDP politician blows it, the NDP will still form the next government cause the main problem with his opponent is that she has no CREDIBILITY left after so many misfires, the latest being the useless Times of India Awards, where she upset the local film industry and wasted $11 million of taxpayers’ money in what seemed like her last big hurrah party!
By R. Paul Dhillon
VICTORIA – The 40th provincial election kicked off this week with NDP leader Adrian Dix and his party clearly in the driver’s seat while Christy Clark and her BC Liberals just scrambling to stay in the race.
If polls are any indication, the election is clearly Dix to lose but the BC Liberals are so far down that even if the veteran NDP politician blows it, the NDP will still form the next government cause the main problem with his opponent is that she has no CREDIBILITY left after so many misfires, the latest being the useless Times of India Awards, where she upset the local film industry and wasted $11 million of taxpayers’ money in what seemed like her last big hurrah party!
On just the second official day of the campaign for BC’s 85 seat, a new poll put Dix’s New Democrats staying on top and heavily favoured to win the election on May 14.
The latest forecast for ThreeHundredEight.com (full methodology) and The Globe and Mail projects that, had an election been held on April 14 when polls were last in the field, the New Democrats would have taken 48 per cent of the vote. The B.C. Liberals would have taken 30 per cent, with the B.C. Conservatives at 12 per cent and the B.C. Greens at 9 per cent, reported the Globe and Mail.
That is an enormous lead for Dix, and it is estimated that there is a less than 1-in-50 chance that it can be overcome by Clark before May 14.
According to the polling data, the NDP would pick up 65 seats versus 19 for the Liberals and one independent.
According to pollster Eric Grenier of threehundredeight.com, the New Democrats have a 98 percent chance of winning the election.
“In past BC elections, the polls had tended to tighten up as the vote approached. But never to the extent that would overcome a gap of say 15 to 20 points,” he says.
Grenier says it would take something pretty massive to change the outcome.
“Based on the amount of change you can see in the polls in the last few months, there really hasn’t been that much. So to expect a huge amount of change in the next couple of weeks is a little unrealistic,” he says.
With such a large margin over the Liberals, the NDP realistically has chance from 65 to 73 seats to form a majority government. The Liberals would be reduced to between 8-20 seats, while as many as four independents could be elected as possibly some Greens.
The Globe and Mail reports that polls have been remarkably consistent. The last five surveys (from four different polling firms) have all put the party at between 27 and 29 per cent support, and the gap between them and the New Democrats at between 17 and 20 points (with the exception of an EKOS poll, though their estimate of likely voter support also put the margin at 17 points).
The Liberals have hardly been able to budge from a narrow range of between 26 and 33 per cent support since September, while the NDP has polled at 39 per cent or higher in all of the last 36 polls stretching back to the beginning of 2012, says the National Canadian daily.
Advance voting is available from 8 am. to 8 p.m. (local time) on Wednesday, May 8 through Saturday, May 11, according to Elections BC. All advance voting locations are wheelchair accessible and all voters can vote at any advance voting location in the province.
General voting is available from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. (Pacific time) on Tuesday, May 14, 2013. All voters can vote at any general voting location in the province.
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