Persistent demand coupled with low inventory drives 2022 home price forecast higher to 15%

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TORONTO, ON: According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey released in April the aggregate price of a home in Canada increased 25.1 per cent year-over-year to $856,900 in the first quarter of 2022; the highest gain on record since the Company began tracking aggregate prices. As strong buyer demand continues to outpace supply in almost every market from coast to coast, Royal LePage is forecasting continued strong seller’s market conditions this spring.

Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage said that while the Bank of Canada announcement of a 0.5 per cent interest rate increase will be a drag on demand, its impact will be relatively minor compared to the impact of sharply higher home prices. The central bank has indicated that it intends to continue to increase the overnight rate through 2023.

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data, nationally and in 62 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home rose 26.7 per cent year-over-year to $906,100, while the median price of a condominium increased 19.7 per cent year-over-year to $612,900. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by Royal LePage’s sister company RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.

While some properties were attracting fewer bids, listings in popular neighbourhoods that are priced appropriately are still commanding multiple offers and selling above the list price.

The aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver increased 18.2 per cent year-over-year to $1,368,600 in the first quarter of 2022. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 20.7 per cent to $1,870,100, while the median price of a condominium increased 20.4 per cent to $828,400 during the same period.

“While the supply of listings is beginning to increase, it is happening at a very slow pace. Meanwhile, demand has subsided slightly,” said Randy Ryalls, general manager, Royal LePage Sterling Realty. “Greater Vancouver remains in a strong seller’s market, with many listings being absorbed quickly. These market conditions are self-perpetuating. Lack of supply causes hesitation in sellers who hold off listing their home until they can buy.”

In the city of Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home increased 14.6 per cent year-over-year to $1,478,100 in the first quarter of 2022. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 21.7 per cent to $2,665,400, while the median price of a condominium increased 7.1 per cent to $835,600.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver will increase 15.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast, released in December, 2021, has been revised upward to reflect the continued strength of the market through the first quarter of the year.