DR. SAWRAJ SINGH
INTERNATIONAL
AFFAIRS / EDITORIAL
The main trends of the rise of the Eastand the decline of the West are becomingclearer every day. These trends arereflected in the West’s decreasing share inworld trade while the East’s share isincreasing. However, we can use anyother criteria such as military power, travel,tourism or spending power and thecontinental shift becomes obvious. Evenwestern experts now admit that the shiftof power from West to East is takingplace.The U.S. spent $600 billion on defense in2013. China spent $112 billion. Britainhas fallen from the third to the fifthplace, behind Russia and Saudi Arabia.Russia spent $68.2 billion, Saudi Arabia$59.6 billion, UK $57 billion, France$52.4 billion, Germany $44.2 billion,India $36.3 billion, and South Korea$31.8 billion.However, total expenditure does not tellthe whole story because there are otherfactors such as the purchasing power ofmoney, salaries, and housing of the largearmies. If we take these factors into consideration,then the increase in spendingby Asian countries becomes moreimpressive. For example, taking thesefactors into consideration, the differencein US spending ($600 billion) and China’sspending ($112 billion) narrows downconsiderably and is almost equal.There is still another factor that makes adifference. How willing a country is touse its military power. The Americanpeople, by a vast majority, will not agreeto a military intervention such asAmerica did in Iraq or Afghanistan.China does not face such a problem. Ifthe leadership decides to intervene militarily,then it does not have to worryabout public reaction. Therefore, Chinahas much more likelihood of interveningmilitarily if it decides that it is in itsnational interest to do so. The westernEuropean countries face this problemeven more than the US; their citizens donot want to get involved in any prolongedor risky war. Unlike the past, thewestern powers are very reluctant to getinvolved in any major war.Defense spending in Asia has gone up23% since 2010, while in Europe realdefense spending fell in 2013 in 57% ofthe countries. Out of the Asian countries,China and Russia are much morelikely to use military power now in amajor conflict. China spends three timesas much as India in defense and morethan Japan, South Korea, and Taiwancombined. After 2030, even in absolutenumbers, China will be spending morethan the US defense.It looks like the US and WesternEuropean countries are unwilling to getinvolved in a war that risks a direct confrontationwith Russia or China. Forexample, the western countries intervenedmilitarily in Libya to get rid ofGaddafi. They did not see a threat ofdirect confrontation with Russia.However, in Syria, where such a confrontationwas likely, they decided toback out. Similarly, if Russia decides tointervene militarily in Ukraine, then itbecomes highly unlikely that NATO willrisk a direct confrontation and a storylike Georgia, Czechoslovakia, orHungary will be repeated. NATO isextremely unlikely to fight a major warwith Russia close to the Russian border.If Russia decides to intervene militarily inUkraine, China may see this as a greatopportunity to occupy the areas it claimswith its neighboring countries such asJapan and Philippines (the closestAmerican allies in Asia). Such a scenariocan be a nightmare for America andEurope. Not only will they take a beatingin Ukraine like they took in Syria, buttheir closest allies in Asia will also behumiliated. On the other hand, Chinaand Russia can show their solidarity andcommitment to end the present westerndominatedworld order and replace itwith a multipolar world.The western military experts are also inagreement that western power is decreasingwhile eastern power is rising. AndersFogh Rasmussen, Secretary General ofNATO, said that the West will have lessinfluence on the international scene. Thevacuum will be filled by other forces andthey do not necessarily share westerninterests and values. In 2021, defensespending by non-NATO countries willoutstrip the western alliance. Next year,China’s spending will outstrip the UK,France, and Germany combined.Reluctance of the American peopleto get involved in any other majormilitary conflict becomes obvious whenwe see changing attitudes of Americanstowards the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.According to a recent USA Today-publishedPew Research Center Survey, 57%of Americans feel that America did notachieve its goals in Iraq while only 37%feel that it did. In 2011, 33% ofAmericans had felt that America did notachieve its goals in Iraq while 56% hadfelt that it did. Similarly on theAfghanistan war, 52% feel that Americafailed to achieve its goals while 38% feelthat it did. In 2011, a majority ofAmericans had felt that Americaachieved its goals in Afghanistan.The global shift of power is also seen intravel and tourism. More and moreAsians, particularly Chinese, are travellingabroad. In the year 2000, 10 millionChinese made international trips; in2012, 83 million Chinese made such trips.This year, more than 100 million Chineseare expected to travel abroad. In the year2011, Chinese tourists spent $102 billion.That is more than what American andGerman tourists spent. In terms of travelspending, the top four countries areChina, US, Germany, and UK.More Asians travel for leisure thanfor business: China: 69% for leisure, 31% for businessIndia: 68% for leisure, 32% for businessJapan: 82% for leisure, 18% for businessSingapore:81% for leisure, 18% for businessChina is now the number three destinationfor world tourists, after France andthe US. The main destination of Asianswill be other Asian countries. By 2030,North East Asia is expected to becomethe most visited destination in the world.A large proportion of travelers between2010 and 2030 will be from Asia.A growing number of Punjabis living inthe Vancouver area are now travelling byChinese Airlines to visit India. Of course,the greatest incentive for them is the factthat the prices of Chinese Airlines arehard to beat by other airlines. No matterwhat their reason is for choosing Chineseairlines though, but in a way it shows thegrowing influence of China in the world.Generally, these people have a favorableopinion about China and feel that theygot a good deal for their money.Indians in general, and Punjabis in particular,are heavily tilted toward the West.Therefore, any shift in their views, nomatter how small, proves that the globalbalance of power is really shifting. Thereare more than 11,000 Indian studentsnow studying medicine in China. Again,the incentive may be cost, yet it onlyproves the theory of continental shift ofpower. Even though very reluctantly,finally some of us are beginning tobelieve that the Eastern sun is rising whilethe western sun is setting.Dr. Sawraj Singh, MD F.I.C.S. is theChairman of the Washington State Networkfor Human Rights and Chairman of theCentral Washington Coalition for Social Justice.He can be reached at [email protected].
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