The Congress wrested a key, resource-rich state in the South, winning Telangana on Sunday, but lost ground in north India, failing to displace the Bharatiya Janata Party in Madhya Pradesh, and being voted out of power in both Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Analysts say the electoral loss has created a larger problem for the largest Opposition party: it has faltered in a region where it needs to drastically improve its strike rate against the BJP.
“The biggest problem for the Opposition is that the Congress is not able to grow in states where it faces the BJP. In other areas, it plays a second fiddle to strong regional parties,” said a senior leader from an Opposition party who asked not to be named. Worse still, the loss in the Hindi heartland means the Congress is in power only in Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana, adding weight to the argument that India’s grand old party is becoming a largely southern Indian regional force.
The Congress itself is aware of this. “Our focus has remained on improving our strike rate in north India. Only if we can expand our presence in the north India, do we have a better chance of taking on the BJP nationally,” said a Congress leader who asked not to be named.
After Sunday’s results, the Congress has 439 MLAs out of 1,320 in 10 states where it is in direct contest with the BJP — Assam, Chhattisgarh, Goa, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Rajasthan. In the Lok Sabha, two states, Kerala and Punjab, account for 30% seats of the Congress . The principal Opposition party has just seven Lower House seats from the 10 states listed above.
The Congress, which won two states between November last year and May, suddenly looking like it was on the path to revival , admits that Sunday’s results are a reversal.
“The setback is even bigger as it comes just six months before the Lok Sabha polls and the window for course correction is very small,” said a Congress leader who asked not to be named.
“But our larger problem”, said a senior strategist in the Congress, “is about positioning ourselves in north India. We desperately want our strike rate against BJP to improve. In other states, we have to depend on regional parties. In those states, such as Bihar, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh or Tamil Nadu, we are marginal players. It is in north India, where we should have improved but we couldn’t.”
Sanjay Kumar of CSDS told HT, “We have been always talking about the inability of the Congress to face the BJP in a direct contest. In a large number of north Indian states, the Congress has tags attached to it of appeasing the Muslims or being a dynasty party. Also, in north Indian states, the Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoys an unmatched popularity. Outside north, in many states the regional identities are much stronger. But in the north, the BJP’s general plank of national pride, nationalism and Hindutva have a greater appeal and the Congress is not able to match that national pride and Hinduism.”
