By Hardev Sodhi ‘Ashk
I am no expert in Russian history. However last US presidential election in 2016 that Vladimir Putin allegedly influenced through social media, resulting in unexpected win of Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton, intrigued and prompted me to educate myself to write this column and justify its title.
From 1940 to 1991, USSR had15 constituent or union republics—Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan), Latvia, Lithuania, Moldavia, Russia, Tadzhikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.
It also dominated neighboring countries called together East Europe i.e. Poland, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Albania and Yugoslavia.
Despite shortcomings, USSR before 1991, spread over Asia and Europe was a power to reckon with.During period of 1985-1996 MikhailGorbachev initiatedradical economic and social reforms glasnost (openness) and perestroika (restructuring) to end one party communist rule. He wanted a democratic social system of semi-autonomous states in USSR, akin to USA. His intentions were great but they were was hijacked by Boris Yelstin in his greed for power.
Boris Yeltsin met secretly on December 8, 1991 with leaders of Ukraine and Belarus and together they agreed to dissolve the Soviet Union. In its place would be a voluntary union, the Commonwealth of 15 Independent Countries.
It was Dec 25, 1991, Gorbachev resigned and andBoris Yelstin to carve his own empire Russia ( ¾ of whole USSR) declared independence and all othersfollowed. Over all it was an incredulous peaceful transition.
Since then, former East European countries i.e.Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia joined EU. Berlin Wall came down (Nov 1991) and two Germany (East & West) became one.
Vladimir Putin was working as KGB agent in East Germany at the time Gorbachev started Glasnost and Perestroikaand could not do much to mould it.
During this period of 1985-1996, USA and the West (Ronald Regan George Bush) happily encouraged this breakup. At that time basic human desire of freedom of speech and right for democracy worked in their favor.
Putin, a strong nationalist fumed but could do little until he was brought to Moscow in summer 1996 on mission to collect information, monitor, and help the Kremlin rein in Russia’s unruly oligarchs.
December 31, 1999 after Boris Yelstin resigned and was replaced by Putin as acting President. He has always resented breakdown of USSR. He believes that he has been humiliated by USAin international arena on several occasions after smaller but still very powerful Russia came into being. He is revengeful and wants to bring back old glory days in a newer form by maintaining control over the neighboring ex-USSR countries.
Putin has waited long and played his cards well.He has dealt with three US presidents Bill Clinton (1993-2001), George W Bush (2001-2009), and Barack Obama (2009-20017). Now with his KGB mindset and killer instincts hehas finally found a perfect hunt in Donald Trump
Today he is giving tough time to USA in Syria, increasing nuclear arsenal as well playing dirty games in social media.
He is demoralising USA by working at its very foundation of democracy. Just as an informed citizen is the biggest strength of democracy, converse is also true i.e. a misinformed individual can create havoc especially as a mob. Hitler used his Nazi followers to hurt Jews. We used to call those radio broad casts Propaganda. Now Fake News has replaced this name in Social Media but impact is same. In fact it is now more alarming and vicious because of the ease with which it can be propagated remotely. Brutal mob killing of minorities in India/Myanmar and loss of Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump are examples of immediate and long term impact of Social Media. While Face Book, WhatsApp and others are under scrutiny and will be ultimately regulated under International Law. However developing countries where common people do not have education, resources or expertise to monitor and distinguish,could still be exploited by corrupt politicians, business and religion leaders working together through government machinery.
Russia like other major powers i.e. USA, China, Indiais raising armyof cyber experts to successfully use social media i.e. Face Book, Twitter, WhatsApp etc. to influence voters’ thinking primarily with fake news.
Irrespective of Russia’s role or not, Trump is an individual with a queer unpredictable mindset. His rise in US political scene in 1916 is the best thing that happened to Putin.Look at what he has gained with election of Trump as president and hehimself did not have to fire a single shot for it!
1 Humiliation on International Scene– Previous US presidents whether Democrats or Republicans represented the most powerful nation of the world with solid commitments on international agreements and were admired despite disagreements. However Trump is not taken seriously by leaders of even small countries.
2 Loss of Trust: Future agreements with foreign governments will be questionable.
3 Ongoing rifts: Between USA on one side, close EU allies Germany France etc., Canada Mexico (NAFTA) and China all in opposition.
4 Continuing uncertainty and reign of fear and intimidation at White House coming from strange behavior of instant tweets and counter tweets from no other than President.
Like leaders of other countries including India, Trump is riding current wave of popularity,playing favorite of majority populace i.e. to win election, typically through bogies of illegal immigrants, jobs, pseudo patriotism and local issues. He is a very unpredictable impulsive person with blemished business and social past. It will not be surprising that KGB has a damaging information on him.
White House under Trump has become a theatre with daily new shows-( LATEST- published anonymously in the New York Times, surfaced one day after the first excerpts emerged from Bob Woodward’s new book, in which Trump’s top advisers painted a devastating portrait of the president and described a “crazytown” atmosphere inside the White House Sep 7 2018)
I am aCanadian who adoreswestern democracies, as well role of USA as the big brother. However a counterbalance is a mustto control arrogance of big brother that comes with absolute dominance. Too bad, human history missed a great opportunity when Boris Yelstinfor his self-interest lynched USSR visualised by Gorbachev. It could have provided a viable alternative social system to western democracy.
Trump is doing a favor to Russia by isolating USA with his ongoing trade wars. He is turning away his major partner China as well old NATO allies. Putinon the other hand is courting Chinese President Xi Jinping, India and even Pakistan to form a formidable Eastern block to oppose USA. I am no fan of Putin, but have to give him credit for his patience and focussed vision.Trump one day will be gone but repercussions of his actions will linger for years to come both in USA and rest of the world. Future historians of Russia and USA, may not look kindly at their respective presidents namely Boris Yelstin and Donald Trump for major upheavals in their countries.
Putin, electedin March 2018 election as President of Russiawill be power till 2024. He is totally dominant and can easily outmaneuver Russian opposition parties and stay in power even after Trump is gone.However he will be continue using him to poke painfully underbelly of Uncle Sam at every opportunity and keep smiling!
Stay tuned for the next episode!
Hardev Sodhi ‘Ashk’ is the Ex-chair Technologies K.P.U. in Surrey B.C. He can be reached at hardev2000@ yahoo.com.
