No Modi Wave In Many Crucial States, Says Poll

NEW DELHI -How much of adifference has theformal anointmentof NarendraModi as the BJP’sprime ministerialcandidate reallymade? The TimesNow-CVoter pollreleased onWednesday givessome pointers andthey are at best mixed news forthe saffron party.At the national level, the poll’sestimates of 162 seats for theBJP is a significant rise fromthe 131 a similar poll projectedin July, when Modi was not yetformally the party’s PM aspirant.However, a closer look atthe state-wise numbers suggeststhat these gains are largelyconfined to a few traditionalstrongholds, which also happento be states where the contestis more or less a directCongress-BJP battle.Thus, the BJP has gained 7seats vis-a-vis the July estimatesin Madhya Pradesh, 4seats each in Rajasthan andKarnataka, 3 in Uttarakhand, 2in Maharashtra and 1 inChhattisgarh. Between them,these add up to a gain of 21,which is the bulk of the all-India gain. Outside of these,the only really significantimprovement from the Julyestimates is in UP, where theprojection is up from 12 in Julyto 17 in the latest poll.This raises questions aboutwhether the ‘momentum’ thatis being talked about can gomuch further. In states whereregional parties are major players,UP is the only one inwhich the BJP has been able toshow some momentum.Unfortunately for the BJP,such states account for thebulk of the 543 seats in theLok Sabha. Unless it can makedents in them, its run may bepetering out if the two pollsare an indication.